Why OKC’s Road Dominance Against The Spread Isn’t Sustainable

• The Oklahoma City Thunder are 33-22 overall, are in 6th place in the West and have completely overachieved in the first half of the NBA season.

• OKC has gone 22-8 ATS as an underdog and 21-5 ATS on the road so far.

• Chris Paul, who just made his 10th All-Star Game, has led the team, but the emergence of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder along with the stability provided by Danilo Gallinari and Steven Adams has allowed Coach Billy Donovan to design schemes that work on both ends of the court. 

• While they’ve been absolutely dominant against the spread on the road, their current rate is unsustainable, but they still might go down as the best in recent memory in that regard.

When the Oklahoma City Thunder shipped off Russell Westbrook to the Houston Rockets in exchange for Chris Paul and draft picks last offseason, the media’s focus veered in two distinct directions. First, the reunion of Westbrook and James Harden, arguably the most formidable backcourt in the NBA, became the most debated move in recent memory. How would Westbrook fit into Mike D’Antoni’s perimeter-oriented system? How would the two superstars get along? Yada, yada, yada. Meanwhile, since OKC was now presumably in a rebuild, having dealt away the last piece of a would-have-been dynasty consisting of Kevin Durant, Harden and Westbrook, which trade partner could they find for Paul, an aging veteran point guard on a decline with a huge dollar amount left on his guaranteed contract?

We know now that Paul wasn’t traded. Whether or not that was by design is up for debate, but somehow, someway, Billy Donovan has made it work. 

Paul was just selected to his 10th All-Star game and has thrived alongside young guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder, who are having career years. With a core also consisting of Danilo Gallinari and Steven Adams, the Thunder ended up staying put at the Trade Deadline, which surprised some. But, the Thunder are 33-22 overall, are in sixth place in the Western Conference standings and are just 9.0 games out of first place and 1.5 games behind the Rockets, who are in fifth place at the break. 

Most importantly, OKC has been the NBA’s most reliable team to bet on against the spread, as indicated by their incredible 64.2% cover rate (34-19). They’ve also gone 22-8 ATS as an underdog (which is mind-boggling) and have already surpassed the 31.5 or 32.5 regular-season win total that most books released before the campaign tipped off.

However, there’s one trend that they’ve shown in the first half that is so ridiculous, so improbable, that it’s worth pointing out due to how unsustainable it is: the Thunder are 21-5 ATS (80.8%) on the road this season. You read that correctly. In 26 opportunities, they’ve covered 21 times. For context, the time any team broke 70% was the 2013-2014 Phoenix Suns (29-12, 70.7%), preceded by the 2006-2007 Boston Celtics (29-12, 70.7%). So, what makes this Oklahoma City team stand out, especially since they’ve only outscored their opponents by an average of 1.6 points per game on the road? And, more importantly, can they keep up this insane pace? Let’s explore.

Note: all of the statistics below were found on NBA.com and are road-only numbers.

Offense

The Thunder certainly haven’t shot the lights out on the road, as indicated by the fact that they’ve converted 45.5% of their field goals (13th), including 34.6% of their three-point attempts (19th). That’s played a role in their 107.8 points per game (23rd) and 108.3 Offensive Rating (14th). Surprisingly, they’ve managed just 20.9 assists per contest (28th), a 53.9% assist rate (27th) and a 1.56 assist:turnover ratio (20th) despite the presence of Paul and the ball-handling dominance of Gilgeous-Alexander and Schroder, both of whom are guards who possess distributing ability. After Terrance Ferguson went down with an injury early in the season, Donovan debuted a three-PG lineup and hasn’t deviated since due to the profound success it’s had. In the 368 minutes in which Paul, Gilgeous-Alexander and Schroder have shared the court, they’ve had an offensive rating of 127.7. That’s crazy. Some might even call it bonkers. They lead the entire NBA among qualified trios in that regard.

While these numbers certainly paint a picture, they don’t come close to explaining how and where the Thunder prosper and struggle. 

OKC hasn’t taken advantage of what opposing defenses have gifted them, as indicated by the fact that they’ve managed just 11.5 fast-break points (23rd), 14.9 points off of turnovers (25th) and 10.2 second-chance points (worst). They also haven’t benefited from high-percentage shots down low, since they average just 43.5 points in the paint (28th). 

But, they sure have made dribble-drives a key part of their offensive scheme. Their 52.5 drives per game rank 3rd-highest among all NBA teams on the road and their 11.8 field goals made off of drives (2nd-most), 24.3 field goals attempted on drives (3rd-most) and 48.6% field goal conversion on drives (6th) are all significant, but the Thunder have drawn the most fouls per game on the road in the NBA (23.2 per contest). That might be the most important metric of all. Their willingness to initiate contact and take blows in the act of shooting has, in part, resulted in 29.7 points per game coming directly as a result of drives (2nd-most). The team’s stellar free throw shooting (79.8%, third-best) has been an absolute weapon and is absolutely one of the main offensive factors behind their success.

As noted above, the Thunder don’t score in the paint, which doesn’t exactly fit the narrative of a team that drives the ball at such a high frequency. OKC has been torching their opponents in pull-up situations, where they’ve amassed 24.3 points per game on jumpers (6th). They’ve made 10.7 pull-up jumper field goals per contest (3rd-most), have attempted 26.4 per game (5th-most) and have shot 40.6% on those attempts (3rd-best). Not many teams have a mid-range game designed into their offense nowadays, but Coach Donovan’s does. Interestingly, they’ve run isolation plays 8.5% of the time on offense, which is the third-highest rate on the road, and have run pick-and-roll plays 22.6% of the time (5th). While the P&R is a staple of every CP3-led team, the isolation percentage is a bit shocking, even if the team’s offensive threats are concentrated heavily around Paul, Gilgeous-Alexander, Schroder and Gallinari. Any of the aforementioned players have the ability to go off on a given night. 

Defense

Defensively, the Thunder’s cumulative stats paint a pretty picture. They’ve allowed an average of 106.2 points (3rd-best), have managed a 106.9 Defensive Rating (4th-best) and they’ve done so with a cerebral approach. 

Donovan’s group has committed just 18.4 personal fouls per game (4th-fewest), have allowed just 11.7 second-chance points (3rd-best), 12.3 first-break points (5th) and 15.2 points off of turnovers (6th). They’ve been around the league average in defending the paint, as they’ve surrendered 49.2 points per contest (17th). Overall, Gallinari and Schroder have been the only real defensive liabilities, while Gilgeous-Alexander, Paul and Adams have been slight plus-defenders. By most metrics, backup center Nerlens Noel has been the team’s best defensive stopper. As you’ll find out below, OKC’s ability to switch on every on-and-off-ball screen has allowed them to conserve energy and hone in on a team-oriented philosophy. 

Effort And Intangibles

OKC’s success has been predicated upon controlling the pace of the game. Coach Donovan’s half-court sets and the team’s roster aren’t designed to play an up-tempo style. In fact, the team’s 98.65 pace ranks 25th. Going really in-depth, their 9.41 cumulative miles run on offense ranks 27th, and their 8.14 miles run on defense ranks 22nd. This can be explained by a couple of factors: offensively, they’re relying on isolations and pick-and-rolls rather than off-ball action and motion. Defensively, they’re switching on nearly every screen, and therefore not chasing or fighting through screens. Donovan made that defensive approach a staple early in the year and has stuck with it since. 

Team rebounding numbers have been right around the league average. The Thunder pull down 44.2 boards per contest as a unit (14th) and have a 50% rebound rate (11th). As Charles Barkley would tell anyone: rebounding and winning loose balls is all about toughness and heart. OKC averages 8.0 loose ball wins per game (8th). Further, they’ve contested 63.7 shots per game defensively (6th) out of the 89.7 attempts that their opponents have taken. The effort is there and the will to get after the ball is as well. Although the rebounding numbers are right at the league average, keep in mind that the team is usually always trotting out two point guards at all times.

But, this team might have a clutch gene. In the 14 games in which they were tied or losing by five or fewer points in the last five minutes, they’ve scored 7.9 points (2nd-highest), which has amounted to an 8-6 overall record and success against the spread, even in losing straight-up results. Further, their 54.9% field goal conversion in that exact situation also ranks 2nd. Therefore, when the game has been within striking distance, Paul and company haven’t waived the white flag and have instead played impressive offensive basketball.

Sustainability

There’s a reason why no team has managed above a 70.7% cover rate on the road since 2003. It’ll be wildly difficult to continue their 80.8% clip moving forward, but they have a shot, especially since their schedule might work in their favor. While contests against the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks will be daunting, three of their first four road opponents coming out of the break are the Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks. Further, they’ll travel to take on the Washington Wizards, a young Memphis Grizzlies squad twice, the Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors as well. 

Their cumulative stats convey that they’re an above-average team as a whole. Simple as that. But, peeling past the layers, there are some valid concerns to bring up. Despite three guards handling the ball most of the time, OKC’s assist numbers are down. Their reliance on offensive isolations is somewhat troubling, as is their lack of a presence in the paint offensively, despite their preference to drive to the hoop. Defensively, the team doesn’t have a lockdown glue-guy of any sort, particularly since Andre Roberson (knee) remains without a timetable to return from an injury that might end up claiming two full seasons. At full health, he was arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA. 

While this team might not have the “it” factor, their grit, willingness to draw fouls, discipline to avoid fouling their opponents and cerebral play has been a pleasant surprise to NBA fans and bettors alike. But, there are simply too many red flags to expect them to continue their historic pace against the spread on the road. However, there’s a fantastic shot that they can surpass the ‘13-14 Suns and ‘06-07 Celtics and be the NBA’s top road team against the spread in recent memory.