2019-2020 NBA Rookie Of The Year Odds - UPDATED

Evaluating updated NBA R.O.Y. odds

Current Odds

The following odds can be found on DraftKings (updated February 23, 2020):

  1. Ja Morant (-560)
  2. Zion Williamson (+450)
  3. Kendrick Nunn (+3000)
  4. R.J. Barrett (+5000), Tyler Herro (+5000)

Analysis

Although Zion Williamson made his NBA debut and has been very impressive so far, this is Ja Morant’s award to lose. His odds remained at -560, despite the fact that Williamson’s odds jumped to +450 from +800 at the beginning of February. Kendrick Nunn, R.J. Barrett and Tyler Herro also are in the top five, but if anyone’s going to actually threaten Morant, it’ll be Zion, who would need to capitalize on a complete drop-off or injury by Ja in order to overtake him.

Previous Odds

The following odds can be found on DraftKings (updated on February 1st, 2020).

  1. Ja Morant (-560)
  2. Zion Williamson (+800)
  3. Kendrick Nunn (+2000)
  4. R.J. Barrett (+2500)
  5. Tyler Herro (+4000)

Analysis

As stated last month (below), "Before he becomes even more of a favorite, now's a great time to jump on Morant, especially since Williamson will likely be eased into his initial playing time and will almost assuredly face strict minutes restrictions." Well, hopefully you did just that, as Morant's odds to win the award nearly tripled. Since R.J. Barrett has missed time due to an injury, both Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro have played secondary roles on the Miami Heat and Zion Williamson is easing into his role with the New Orleans Pelicans, Morant is the clear and overwhelming favorite.

Previous Odds

The following odds can be found on DraftKings (updated on January 1st, 2020).

  1. Ja Morant (-200)
  2. R.J. Barrett (+750)
  3. Zion Williamson (+1000)
  4. Kendrick Nunn (+1000)
  5. Rui Hachimura/Tyler Herro (+2000)

Analysis

A lot can change in the span of a month. Ja Morant is now the overwhelming frontrunner to win this award, as R.J. Barrett's play has been inconsistent, Zion Williamson still hasn't stepped on the floor in his first NBA game, Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro's stocks have been slightly hurt by the newfound health of his teammates, Rui Hachimura has been injured. Before he becomes even more of a favorite, now's a great time to jump on Morant, especially since Williamson will likely be eased into his initial playing time and will almost assuredly face strict minutes restrictions.

Previous Odds

The following odds can be found on DraftKings (updated on December 1st, 2019).

  1. Ja Morant (+180)
  2. Zion Williamson (+200)
  3. R.J. Barrett (+500)
  4. Eric Paschall (+1400)
  5. Kendrick Nunn (+1400)

Analysis

For the first time this season, Ja Morant has overtaken Zion Williamson atop this list! Following arthroscopic knee surgery, Williamson is expected to be out of action until at least mid-December, and that might get pushed back even further since the New Orleans Pelicans are off to one of the worst starts in the Western Conference and don't need to rush their prized rookie back. Averaging solid numbers in just under 30 minutes for the Memphis Grizzlies, Morant (back spasms) is listed as week-to-week and could miss a decent amount of time himself. That leaves R.J. Barrett in an appealing situation, as he is playing a ton of minutes in a high-usage role for the New York Knicks. Expect his odds to improve in the coming weeks. Rui Hachimura and Coby White fell off the list and were replaced by Eric Paschall, who has put up some solid performances for the Golden State Warriors in recent weeks, and Kendrick Nunn, who has been a source of excitement for the Miami Heat all season long.

Previous Odds

The following odds can be found on DraftKings (updated on November 19th, 2019).

  1. Zion Williamson (+180)
  2. Ja Morant (+250)
  3. R.J. Barrett (+350)
  4. Rui Hachimura (+1000)
  5. Coby White (+1000)

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Analysis

The top four contenders stayed exactly the same which is slightly surprising since Zion Williamson still hasn't played a single second yet this season while Ja Morant and R.J. Barrett have taken on high-usage roles for their respective clubs. One notable change is that Chicago Bulls point guard Coby White moved into the top five following strong recent play, replacing Miami Heat guard Kendrick Nunn. Although Williamson's odds might not seem deserved since he's missed double-digit games already, he's going to enter a perfect situation when he returns. The New Orleans Pelicans are banged up and struggling, so when he makes his debut, he will likely assume a high-usage role right away and if the club shows improvement while he's on the court (which they naturally will once their core gets healthy regardless), he will likely receive recognition for it.

Previous Odds

The following odds can be found on DraftKings (updated on November 6th, 2019).

  1. Zion Williamson (+180)
  2. Ja Morant (+250)
  3. R.J. Barrett (+350)
  4. Kendrick Nunn (+1000)
  5. Rui Hachimura (+1400)

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Analysis

Zion Williamson hilariously still leads ROY voting without playing in a single game yet. After breaking an NBA record for the most number of points scored by an undrafted rookie through his first five games, Kendrick Nunn's odds jumped up from +5000 to +900 last week, but slightly decreased to +1000 after a few inefficient shooting performances. Ja Morant, R.J. Barrett and Rui Hachimura continue to start and see high usage for their respective clubs, but until Williamson returns, it's hard to imagine anyone else having the impact that he might have. It's worth mentioning that Hachimura's odds slightly dipped from +1200 to +1400. Other than that, it's still early in the season and a lot can transpire. If Williamson continues to miss games, others like Morant and Barrett could continue to creep up if they are able to build on their recent growth.

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Previous Odds

The following odds can be found on DraftKings (updated on November 6th, 2019).

  1. Zion Williamson (+180)
  2. Ja Morant (+250)
  3. R.J. Barrett (+350)
  4. Kendrick Nunn (+900)
  5. Rui Hachimura (+1200)

Honorable mentions: Tyler Herro (+1200), Coby White (+1800), Darius Garland (+2500), Eric Paschall (+3300), PJ Washington (+3300)

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Analysis

If you were wondering what kind of impact Zion Williamson will have on the league, think about the fact that he still leads ROY voting without playing in a single game yet. After breaking an NBA record for the most number of points scored by an undrafted rookie through his first five games, Kendrick Nunn's odds jumped up from +5000 to +900. He should be in the Miami Heat rotation moving forward, but he saw some extra usage due to Jimmy Butler's paternity absence and a couple other minor injuries to his teammates. Ja Morant, R.J. Barrett and Rui Hachimura continue to start and see high usage for their respective clubs, but until Williamson returns, it's hard to imagine anyone else having the impact that he might have.

Previous Odds

The following odds were found on DraftKings on October 31st, 2019.

  1. Zion Williamson (+140)
  2. Ja Morant (+250)
  3. R.J. Barrett (+500)
  4. Coby White (+1000)
  5. Rui Hachimura (+1200)

Honorable mentions: Tyler Herro (+1600), PJ Washington (+1600), Darius Garland (+2000), Jarrett Culver (+3300), De’Andre Hunter (+3300), Kendrick Nunn (+5000), Brandon Clarke (+7000), Cameron Reddish (+7000)

Analysis + Advice

Since Zion Williamson is out with his knee injury for multiple weeks, there’s a major opportunity for someone else to creep into this race. Ja Morant is the starting point guard for the Memphis Grizzlies and is already in a high-usage role that projects well for his R.O.Y. potential. R.J. Barrett has a slightly-less prominent role on the New York Knicks, but will see moderately-high usage all season long. Others like Rui Hachimura, Darius Garland and De’Andre Hunter are starting for their respective clubs. 

However, what Kendrick Nunn (+5000) did in his first three games with the Miami Heat was nothing short of incredible. Filling in for Jimmy Butler (paternity leave), Nunn averaged 21.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists in 27.5 minutes and helped lead Miami to two victories. When Butler returns, he won’t see as much usage, but he has undoubtedly done enough to convince his team to give him substantial minutes moving forward. He could be worth a low-risk bet now based on the potential payout.

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