NBA Player Prop Values For Tuesday, October 26

• New York Knicks forward Julius Randle over 23.5 points (+100, DraftKings) is a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ value against the Philadelphia 76ers. Per BetQL, he’s projected to score 32 points to go along with 10 rebounds and 7 assists.

• San Antonio Spurs guard Derrick White under 16.5 points (+120, DraftKings) is a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ bet against the Los Angeles Lakers. Per BetQL, he’s projected to score 13 points to go along with 5 rebounds and 3 assists.

• Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green under 8.5 assists (-145, DraftKings) is a ⭐⭐⭐ bet against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Per BetQL, he’s projected to record 5 assists to go along with 7 points and 6 rebounds. 

• All stats below can be found on NBA.com.

Julius Randle Over 23.5 Points vs. 76ers 

The Knicks (2-1) are a slight 1.5-point favorite over the 76ers (2-1) in this matchup at Madison Square Garden and Randle is off to an incredible individual start. Through three games, he’s averaging 28.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists in 38.3 minutes and has attempted 22.3 field goals and 8.0 free throws per contest. It’s clear that he’s the focal point of New York’s offense and that it runs through him. Expect him to get the ball and make things happen early and often in this matchup, as he’s averaging 7.7 isolation possessions per game so far.

Sure, two of his three outings came against the Orlando Magic, but Randle has a 32.0% usage rate which leads Knicks starters and rotation players by a wide margin (Evan Fournier at 23.0% mark and Derrick Rose at 21.5% have the next-highest usage rates on the team). Despite the fact that New York lost all three regular-season meetings against the Sixers last season, Randle surpassed this 23.5 point number in two of the three contests and this Philadelphia team ranks 18th in Defensive Rating early on due to the absence of Ben Simmons. Keep in mind that while this is a very small sample size, the 76ers finished last season 2nd overall in Defensive Rating, so they declined from an elite unit to an average one.

Per BetQL, Randle is projected to score 32 points to go along with 10 rebounds and 7 assists.

Derrick White Under 16.5 Points vs. Lakers

The Spurs (1-2) are +2.5 point home underdogs against the Lakers (1-2) tonight and White’s point total is simply too high. He’s averaging 15.3 points, 2.7 rebounds and 6.7 assists over 32.7 minutes per game through three starts, but has failed to surpass the 16.5 mark in any game: he dropped 16 against the Magic in the season-opener followed by 16 at the Denver Nuggets and 14 against the Milwaukee Bucks. 

White has only made it to the free throw line eight times in three games, so it’s hard to imagine him suddenly earning a ton of free points at the charity stripe in this matchup unless he completely alters his style of play. Further, he’s part of Gregg Popovich’s team-first style of play that rides the hot hand. The guard has shot a solid 47.2% overall, but will have to share scoring duties with Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson and Lonnie Walker IV, all of which have higher usage rates than him. Given the constant threat of a Lakers blowout if LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook figure out how to click, it’s best to bet under the 16.5 points for White in this spot.

Per BetQL, White is projected to score 13 points to go along with 5 rebounds and 3 assists.

Draymond Green Under 8.5 Assists At Thunder

Green and the Warriors (3-0) are 9-point favorites at the Thunder (0-3) and this has all the ingredients of a potential blowout. OKC has failed to cover in all three games this season and is in the midst of a full rebuild. That makes the idea of a double-digit Warriors victory very realistic, which supports the under since he'll likely grab some extra rest down the stretch in a blowout.

Green is averaging 10.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.3 assists over 32.7 minutes in his three starts this season and has recorded 6, 7 and 6 assists, respectively, in his outings. It’s also important to note that the Warriors went undefeated and scored 121, 115 and 119 points in those contests, which is a sign of things to come. Stephen Curry (32.4% usage rate), Jordan Poole (30.5%), Andrew Wiggins (20.5%) Gary Payton II (17.1%), Nemanja Bjelica (16.9%) and Damion Lee (16.5%) all have higher usage rates than Green (14.4%) so far. Oddsmakers haven’t adjusted their player props to reflect Green’s decreased offensive role yet. Take advantage while you still can.

Per BetQL, Green is projected to record 5 assists to go along with 7 points and 6 rebounds. 

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