Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets: Previewing Game 4

Can the Nuggets avoid a sweep at home?

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The #2 seeded Phoenix Suns will be seeking a sweep of the #3 seeded Denver Nuggets in game 4 of their Western Conference second-round series. The series has been every bit as lopsided in the Suns’ favor as their 3-0 series lead indicates. The Suns have outscored the Nuggets by 56 points in the first three games of the series and have won every game by double-digits.

The Suns are favored over the Nuggets by two points in game 4. The Nuggets came back in their second-round matchup against the Clippers in last season’s playoffs after starting the series in a 3-1 hole. However, the Nuggets will be attempting to pull another rabbit out of the hat without Jamal Murray’s services. Denver’s second-round magic will likely not be repeated against the Suns for the following reasons.

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A Dubious Gameplan

For whatever reason, the Nuggets have relied upon the three-point shot as their primary offensive attack against the Suns. 44.7% of the Nuggets’ field goal attempts from the series have come from the three-point line and they have shot at least 40 threes in all three games. The Nuggets are only connecting on 33.9% of these three-point attempts. During the regular season, 38.3% of the Nuggets’ field goals came from beyond the arc and they shot 37.7% from the three-point line.

What makes a game plan based on three-point shooting especially dubious is that Denver is attempting so many threes even though their best three-point shooter, Jamal Murray, is unavailable. Murray shot almost 41% from the three-point line on 6.6 three-point attempts per game. The Nuggets should be focused on attacking Phoenix’s relatively diminutive frontcourt in the paint, which is where the Suns’ defense is the most vulnerable. The Suns have actually outscored the Nuggets by four points in the paint through the first three games. The Nuggets will need to modify their offensive attack if they want to avoid a sweep in game 4.

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Halftime Adjustments

Whatever Monty Williams has told his team at halftime has worked like a charm this series. The Suns have blitzed the Nuggets in the third quarter all series. The Suns have outscored the Nuggets by 29 points in the third quarter of the three games. Denver has come out flat and seemingly unprepared to compete with the Suns after halftime.

The Suns have especially dominated the Nuggets in the second-half during the minutes played by Nikola Jokic. The Suns have outscored the Nuggets by 25 points in the second-half when the MVP has been on the floor for Denver. Jokic has missed 27 of his 41 second-half field attempts and eight of his 10 second-half three-point attempts in this series. The Joker was apparently not just flattering DeAndre Ayton with his admission that Ayton has defended him as well as anyone has this season.

Really Good or Really Lucky?

Just two weeks ago, the Suns had fallen behind the Lakers in their first-round series after a blowout defeat in game three. Phoenix was probably looking at a gentleman’s sweep as the Suns were heavy underdogs heading into game 4. Then Anthony Davis sustained a knee injury in game 4 that would limit his effectiveness for the remainder of the series. The Suns came back to dispatch the defending champions in the first-round and got to face the Nuggets without Jamal Murray and a hurt Michael Porter Jr. A back injury has slowed down Porter Jr. as he has struggled the entire series. The Nuggets have been outscored by 47 points with Porter Jr. on the court in the first three games.

Chris Paul has run terribly in the playoffs for this entire career. He has only made it to the conference finals one time despite playing on some incredibly talented teams. However, Paul’s health has seemingly improved while key players for his opponents have been held back by the injury bug. Paul’s luck may have finally changed for the better this postseason. The Suns may be really good or really lucky or they may just be both.

Prediction

History is not on the Nuggets’ side. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series. Bettors should not expect a deviation from the norm in game 4. The Nuggets have not had many answers offensively or defensively in this series and it’s unlikely that they will suddenly come up with any in game 4. With so few backdoor covers in this year’s playoffs, laying the two points with the Suns is the right bet to make.

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