Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets Game 3 Odds, Betting Trends and Picks

Can Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets bounce back?

Vikas Chokshi - Jun 11, 2021, 3:08pm EDT

BetQL Model Trends and Plays:

Mike Malone is 57 - 29 after 2 or more consecutive losses while coaching Denver
Mike Malone is 55 - 24 after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots while coaching Denver
Projected score: Suns 110.5 - Nuggets 110

For all of BetQL’s NBA Playoff top plays click here.

* These are the model's ratings at the time the article was published. Star ratings can change due to line changes, injuries, and other breaking information.

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets (-1.5, 223.5) - 10:00 PM EST

The Suns have controlled this series from the jump, so the Nuggets will need to play some inspired ball to comeback.

Whether you are using the eye test or statistics, Phoenix has been the much better team. The Suns have balance and are better metrically than the Nuggets on both sides of the basketball. Phoenix ranks in the top-10 of a ton of key offensive and defensive metrics. There's a reason they won the first two games by a combined 42 points. That, and the fact that Denver is missing the required offensive firepower to keep up.

Michael Porter Jr.'s back didn't look right in Game 2, so it looks like losing Jamal Murray to a season ending injury is finally catching up to them.

Whether or not the Nuggets can come back to win the series is still unknown, but let's focus on tonight's game to see if they have a chance from a gambling point of view.

While Denver has looked dead, here are a couple of things they do have going for them tonight. The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 25-11 home record. The team plays at a higher altitude, so some teams feel the effects in the second half and gas out. Denver did win two of three at home against Portland in Round 1, so it's just something to keep an eye on in this series.

Head coach Michael Malone also ripped into his team after their putrid showing last game. Malone also said they might mix up the lineup before game-time. Maybe his comments light a fire under the team tonight?

The Joker has been great but he still hasn't had his breakout game this series yet. What better night to ball out than when receiving his MVP award in front of the home crowd?

Phoenix has been on fire from 3-point land, and Denver has allowed teams to shoot 42.2% from deep against them during the playoffs, per Cleaning the Glass. Look for Malone and co. to try to defend the pick-and-roll better in Game 3 and run the Suns off the 3-point line. Easier said than done, but Phoenix is also due for some shooting regression, which would help Denver a ton in this spot.

Both of these teams like to play at a slow pace, ranking 26th and 27th, respectively. Look for the Nuggets to try to turn this into a grind fest and really sow this game down offensively. Maybe that throws the Suns off a little if they get down early.

The biggest X-Factor tonight will be Denver's 3-point shooting. In the playoffs, the Nuggets have hit 38.8% of their 3s, which ranks fifth in the postseason. So far against the Suns, they’ve made just 33.7% from deep. It starts with MPJ, who went 2-9 from 3-point land in Game 2. Denver will need him, Austin Rivers, or Jokic to knock down some 3s to pull out this W.

The Nuggets and their fans should come out fired up, especially with Jokic receiving his award. I also love the 0-2 team at home angle. Teams that are desperate tend to play more aggressive from the jump, whether that's trying harder on defense, or diving for loose balls.

I saw this great betting trend that NBABet posted yesterday before the Bucks game:

Since 2005, NBA Playoffs teams that lost the first two games of series have gone 79-35 ATS (69.3%) at home in the 1st half of Game 3.

The Bucks didn't cover last night, but they should've. Either way, for the reasons listed above, I'm hitting Denver in this first half spot.

Pick: Nuggets -1.5 first half