Lines for the first day of the NBA’s return on Thursday, July 30th, opened with the New Orleans Pelicans as one-point favorites against the Utah Jazz. Over the past week, we have seen the lines move in favor of the Pelicans all the way to -2.5. Our data shows that 61 percent of betting slips are backing the Pelicans. Additionally, 83 percent of the money is going on the New Orleans, resulting in a hefty sharp money advantage in favor of the Pelicans.
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The Jazz and Pelicans shoot well from the field and beyond the arc, both at around 47 and 37 percent, respectively. However, New Orleans strength resides in their young core of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Lonzo Ball. Because of their roster youth, the Pelicans rank first in game pace this season, attempting 92.2 field goals per contest, including averaging 98.3 over their last three games before the break. On the other hand, the Jazz rank second-to-last in the league with 84.6 attempted field goals per game, while averaging just 80 over their last three contests. As a result, the Pelicans rank fifth in scoring with 116.2 points per game compared to the Jazz at 111.0.
Although Utah is a more experienced team than New Orleans, one can assume that the youth of the Pelicans may be beneficial after the four-month intermission. With the New Orleans roster having an average age of 25.6 compared to Utah's average of 26.5, we can expect to see a more energetic and lively Pelicans team for the remainder of the season. Furthermore, the Pelicans are one of only 13 profitable teams against the spread (ATS) this season.
In Western Conference games, the Pelicans are 23-18-1 (.547 win rate) ATS compared to the Jazz, who have gone 14-22-1 (.378 win rate) ATS. Not only do the trends favor the Pelicans, but the team dynamic of the Jazz could be in question after Rudy Gobert’s carelessness prior to the hiatus. Sharp bettors are hammering the Pelicans by a wide margin leading up to the NBA's restart this Thursday.
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