NBA Playoffs: Best Bets & Expert Picks For Mavs-Warriors Game 1

Find out which bets we're targeting for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals

BEST BETS: Mavs vs. Warriors Expert Picks

Dan Karpuc: Warriors -5
Let’s get this out of the way first: I love the Mavericks. They’re probably the main reason why I’ve had a profitable NBA season (74-43, 63.3% on ATS & O/U bets only) so far. Watching Luka Doncic singlehandedly beat down the Suns throughout the last series was astounding, but it was pretty clear that Phoenix had nobody on their roster that could consistently check him. Luckily for the Warriors, elite defender Draymond Green has not only the proven ability to lock down opponents, but the willingness to do so (since he very rarely asserts himself as a scorer on the offensive end). While I don’t expect him to check Luka on every possession, I expect a lot more resistance due to Green’s girth and physicality. Doncic was able to drive to the basket with ease against Phoenix and even when he wasn’t scoring, he was able to log assists or hockey assists as Dallas showed an ability to find the open man on the perimeter. I don’t think that’ll happen with as much frequency in this game.

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Meanwhile, this Golden State team has a ton of offensive weapons and has a much more complex scheme to defend than Phoenix’s pick-and-roll. Off-ball screens, cuts and the slightest bit of separation will be enough for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson to get shots off and guys like Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins are also going to be sources of points. I like the Warriors to win this game and easily cover on their home floor.

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MORE: BETTING PLAYBOOK FOR MAVS-WARRIORS GAME 1

Lucy Burdge: Warriors -5
The Mavericks might have taken down the Suns to move on in these playoffs, but I think the Warriors will be a tougher task for them and I like Golden State to cover this spread in Game 1. A trend favoring them to do so is the Warriors are 16-5 ATS avenging a loss to an opponent while at home this season. Plus, Steve Kerr is 16-2 ATS after a game committing at least 10 more turnovers than opponents while coaching Golden State. With these two huge trends in mind, I really like the Warriors to cover the spread in this one.

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MORE: TOP PLAYER PROPS FOR MAVS-WARRIORS

Nick Ashooh: Under 214.5

The biggest contrast in this series will be pace. The Mavs love to make the game crawl with Luka controlling the offense, while the Warriors want to get out and run the way they have for years.
I can see Dallas making this tough on Golden State, though, and more than likely this game going under the total. Both teams have hit the under less than 50 percent of the time this season, with the Warriors going 18-27 O/U at home.

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