NBA Playoffs: Best Bets & Expert Picks For Celtics-Heat Game 5

BEST BETS: Celtics vs. Heat Expert Picks

Dan Karpuc: Celtics -1.5

They call me “Numbers Dan” for a reason; I trust trends and data ahead of my “gut picks.” I’m not going to pretend to know which Celtics team or which Heat team is going to show up for this game; both squads have been incredibly unpredictable so far in this series. However, there are some powerful trends on Boston’s side, as seen on BetQL’s game page. The Celtics have gone 14-1 ATS on the road against teams with winning records in the second half of the season, and 18-3 ATS on the road against teams that average 23+ assists per contest. As we saw in Game 4, the presence of Robert Williams III means more to this Celtics team defensively than Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart due to his rim protection, so I like Boston’s chances to get the win and to cover on the road in Game 5.

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MORE: BETTING PLAYBOOK FOR CELTICS-HEAT GAME 5

Lucy Burdge: Celtics -1.5
The Celtics are coming off of a covered spread against the Heat when they blew them out, 102-82, as 6.5-point favorites on Monday, so I have a great feeling they can handle this spread in Miami. Especially if Jayson Tatum keeps up his Game 4 dominance, as he had 31 points in that one. And that 31 points outscored everyone in the Heat starting lineup. If the Celtics can break the back-and-forth pattern of winning and losing in this series, I have confidence they can cover this spread against the Heat in Game 5.

MORE: TOP PLAYER PROPS FOR CELTICS-HEAT GAME 5

Brad Pinkerton: Over 203.5

I can't bring myself to take the under on 203.5 for an NBA game, but it's about more than that absurdly low number. Through four games, these teams have combined to average 212.5 points per contest, making the over 3-1. Plus, these teams are a combined 7-2 O/U this season when the total is 202-205. With the second-lowest total so far this series (Game 1 in Miami closed at 203 before these teams scored 225), I have to take the over here.

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