NBA Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Tuesday, May 10

NBA Betting Playbook for Tuesday

Tuesday's NBA trends are collected and ready to go. Let's take a look at what you should know before betting today's NBA playoff games.

One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model has gone 9-2 (82%) on all spread picks over the last seven days for a total return of $618 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game. Click below to sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!

So, wait, is James Harden back? OK, we may not want to jump to that conclusion yet, but he may have found a comfort zone finally with the Sixers. Or not, because you know, one game isn't enough of a sample size yet.

That being said, according to ESPN and Second Spectrum, the average closest defender to Harden in Game 1 was 3.7 feet. In Game 2 it was down to 3.1 feet, the closest in any game over the last three years. In Game 3, with Embiid back on the floor, you could really see how much of an effect Embiid had. When their big man was on the court Miami gave Harden 3.7 feet, but just 2.6 feet when Embiid was off it.

It helps to have an MVP finalist on the floor that's for sure. Speaking of, does Embiid use his MVP snub though as motivation tonight? Probably. Can Harden have a similar outing if that's the case? It's obviously possible.

Let's remember, though, this series shifts back to Miami, where Philly lost both games pretty handily to start. The Heat are 29-11 SU as a home favorite this year, while the Sixers are just 9-8-1 ATS on the road as an underdog. BetQL also points out that the Heat are 34-16 ATS against teams forcing 13 or fewer turnovers per game, and 20-7 against teams making at least 36% of their 3-point attempts.

Expect this game to be closer than the first two in Miami with Embiid playing, but Miami needs to shoot better than the combined 40.9 percent we've seen the last two games on the road; they shot 47.4 percent in Games 1-2 at home.

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I don't think we're really going out on a limb saying the Suns need Chris Paul on the court. They also need him to get back to being the future Hall of Famer we're accustomed to.

Over his last two games, CP3 has had 10 total fouls, while averaging just 8.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists and turning the ball over nine total times. The Mavs won both those games, and are clearly making it a point to take Paul out of the game as much as they can.

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The series shifts back to Phoenix, where the Suns are 32-9 SU, but just 23-23 ATS. What makes this different, though, could be the fact that Jalen Brunson stepped up once again while Luka Doncic was in the lineup as opposed to filling in like he did earlier in the postseason. Brunson has put up 46 total points over his last two games, taking some of the scoring load off Luka.

Phoenix hasn't been great at covering at home when they're favored (which is pretty much every game), so there's enough over the last two games to tell us the Mavs' game plan is clicking. Suns win, but Mavs cover here.

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BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including NBA player props, with star ratings for every game. Click below to sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!