NBA Playoffs 2021: Boston Celtics vs. Washington Wizards Preview and Prediction

We have arrived! The NBA Playoffs get started on Tuesday night with the Eastern Conference play-in games. 

The No. 7 seed Boston Celtics host the No. 8 seed Washington Wizards for the right to face the No. 2 seed Brooklyn Nets in the first round. The loser will face a win-or-go-home scenario against the winner of the Pacers-Hornets, which is also on Tuesday. 

Who has the edge at the TD Garden on Tuesday night? 

When: Tuesday, May 17

Where: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts 

Watch: TNT

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

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Boston Celtics (-1.5, 234.5) vs. Washington Wizards - 9:10 PM EST

This line opened at most shops with the Celtics -3, which quickly disappeared. Many are going to be lining up to bet the red hot Wizards in this matchup against the free falling Celtics. 

The Wiz finished the season 13-5, including a win on Sunday over the Hornets to secure the No. 8 seed. Washington has been carried by the resurgent Russell Westbrook. Since the All Star break, the former league MVP has seen his numbers shoot up across the board, per Basketball Reference.

In a one-game setting, Westbrook can do a ton of damage with his ability to impact the game in plenty of ways. The questions for the Wizards surround their other star. Bradley Beal is playing through a strained hamstring. He missed two games last week before playing in the season finale against Charlotte, despite clearly playing through some pain. Beal did score 25 points, but only hit eight of 27 field goal attempts, including three of 11 from beyond the arc. 

However, the Wizards are surging. Even if Beal is hobbled, the team is in a great place right now. Washington plays at a fast tempo, quickest pace in the league this year. The Wiz know their identity on offense, 29th in the league in three-point rate, per NBA.com, and are going to play through Westbrook and Beal. 

Peaking at the right time is key for a one-game setting like this, and the Celtics are trending in the opposite direction. 

Boston has had its fair share of struggles this season, but their fate may have been sealed when Jaylen Brown was ruled out for the rest of the season last week with torn ligaments in his wrist. With no Brown, the Celts lack of depth continues to be exposed. 

While Jayson Tatum has been stellar this season, Kemba Walker isn’t the same player as when he joined the Celtics. Boston is 2-6 in the month of May, sitting 17th in offensive and 18th defensive efficiency this month. 

Marcus Smart is a defensive stopper, and will get physical with a banged up Beal, but his underlying metrics are not as solid as his reputation. When Smart is on the court this season, the Celtics allow opponents to shoot an effective field goal percentage of 55.5%, in the 26th percentile across the league per Cleaning the Glass.

Boston may be looking ahead to the offseason at this point, and not have the clarity on the offensive end to keep up with the red hot Wiz.

The market moved swiftly on Washington, but I still see value in the Wizards at any underdog price. 

In a one game setting, with a world of momentum, the Wizards should be able to win in Boston. Beal’s hamstring may be an issue to soil any chance at playing spoiler in the first round, but I don’t envision it holding the club back on Tuesday night. 

The BetQL Model agrees with this play, making a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ play on the Wizards +1.5. The Model has Washington favored by 1.5 points. 

Pick: Wizards +1.5