We kick off a new week in the NBA with a large, eight-game slate. There are some key matchups tonight with the Heat vs. Grizzlies and the Celtics vs. Raptors, but none bigger than a rematch of last year's Western Conference semifinals between the Suns and Mavericks. Scroll down to see my pick for that game, plus many more.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model has been on fire early in the season, going 530-369 (59%) on all picks rated ⭐⭐ and higher in the past 30 days for a total return of $1,925 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game.
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The Indiana Pacers (11-12 SU, 12-11 ATS, 10-13 O/U) continue their brutal, seven-game road trip with a matchup against the Golden State Warriors (13-11 SU, 11-13 ATS, 13-10-1 O/U) on Monday night.
The Warriors are playing solid basketball right now. That’s especially true when they’re at home and early in games. And tonight they’re playing a Pacers team that tends to start games slow. In Golden State’s last five home games, the Warriors are 3-1-1 ATS in the first quarter; in the first quarter of the Pacers' last five road games, they are 0-5 ATS. But it’s not just lately that they’ve failed to cover early. Indiana is just 5-17 ATS in the first quarter all season. To make matters worse, they are without Tyrese Halliburton, who typically provides quite a bit of offense, and they’re playing their sixth game of a seven-game road trip. Plus, they’re on a back-to-back having played in Portland last night. All signs point to the Warriors in this game and especially early.
My lean: Warriors 1Q -3.5
The Phoenix Suns (16-7 SU, 13-9-1 ATS, 10-12-1 O/U) hit the road to take on the Dallas Mavericks (10-11SU, 5-16 ATS, 12-9 O/U) in a rematch of last year's Western Conference semifinals.
There won’t be too many opportunities to take the Suns as underdogs this season, so when those opportunities arise, I’m going to jump on it. While these two teams have already met once this season, with Phoenix winning at home, this is still very much a revenge game for the Suns. The loss they suffered to the Mavs in Game 7 of the conference semifinals last year was one of the worst losses in franchise history and isn’t something they’re going to forget anytime soon. The Suns have also been the better team over the last five games and rank significantly higher than Dallas in offensive and defensive rating, rebounding, and net rating.
This line is likely also taking into effect the fact that the Suns are on a back-to-back after playing in San Antonio last night. However, that was an easy blowout win in which no starter played more than 28 minutes. Phoenix should come into this one relatively fresh and ready to give Dallas their best performance.
My lean: Suns +3
The Philadelphia 76ers (12-11 SU, 12-10-1 ATS, 10-13 O/U) continue their road trip on Monday with a stop at the Toyota Center to take on the Houston Rockets (6-16 SU, 11-10-1 ATS, 11-11 O/U).
The Houston Rockets have been a nightmare defensively all season. They’re giving up 116.7 points per game and allowing teams to shoot 48% from the field, which is a bottom-five mark. Houston also ranks dead last in opponents' points off of turnovers while giving up the most turnovers of any team in the league. That’s going to be a huge opportunity for Philadelphia to get out in transition tonight and put up a bunch of points. Speaking of getting out in transition, the Rockets play at a much faster pace than the Sixers and that’s going to be their key to staying with Philly in this game. If Houston can push the pace, they should be able to get a number of easy, fastbreak buckets.
Lastly, both of these teams knock down free throws at a pretty high clip, which can help push games over. The Sixers have the third-best free-throw percentage, while the Rockets rank 12th. Plus, did I mention our BetQL model really likes this play?!
My lean: 76ers-Rockets Over 221
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