How Sharps are Betting Game 5 of the NBA Finals
Interesting trends emerging among sharp money for Game 5
Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors
Spread: TOR -1.5
Money Line: TOR -120, GSW +100
Total: 214.5 Points
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Toronto Leads 3-1
Sharp money was all over the Warriors in Game 4 with 85% of total money coming in to back Golden State as large -220 favorites, but they were unable to pay off that faith and were beaten handily 105-92.
Tonight, both sharp and public money is back on Golden State as the series shifts back to Toronto. Kevin Durant has been officially declared active for Game 5, but it is still unclear how many minutes he will be able to play or how effective he will be after missing more than 3 weeks with a calf injury -- a difficult injury to come back quickly from. We could see the pro money edge shift in favor of Toronto as we approach tip-off if we get further news regarding Durant’s health. Be sure to check the BetQL Injuries Page to get up to the minute injury updates and the latest news on Durant’s status.
The most interesting betting trend that is emerging from Game 5 has to be the split between the amount of money backing the Warriors at +100 money line and the amount on the Raptors at -1.5 against the spread.
As of this afternoon, we are seeing 73% of total money coming in on the Raptors to cover the -1.5 spread at -110 odds. I can understand this from a Toronto perspective in that you are getting slightly better value on them to win by at least 2-points at -110 over the -120 ML, but it’s baffling from a Golden State perspective. Expect some more sharp money to come in on Golden State +1.5 before tip off if these trends continue to hold as many bettors are likely waiting on further clarity around Kevin Durant’s status.
Sharp money has been on the over in every game of this series thus far, so it should be no surprise that yet again we are seeing a huge 84% of total money on the total going over the 214.5 number.
Durant's return certainly is playing a role in the amount of attention on the over here and we have seen the total jump 2.5-points from the 212 open. The over hitting is 2-1-1 in this series, so despite the confidence of sharp money this is far from a sure thing. The Raptors covered the total in 51.8% of their home games this season, while the Warriors covered the total in 56.8% of their road games.
*Odds and Lines are subject to change. Check the BetQL web and mobile apps for the most up to date lines.
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