Identifying The Most Shocking Betting Trend Of The NBA Season (So Far)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have confused oddsmakers all year long

Philadelphia 76ers, Flickr
  • Two teams in the NBA this season have already surpassed their projected regular-season win totals. One of which is the upstart Memphis Grizzlies (30-31, projected win total 27.5 closed at DraftKings Sportsbook), who despite their under-.500 record are currently clinging onto the final playoff spot in the Western Conference

  • The other team that bookmakers around the world swung and missed on was the Oklahoma City Thunder (37-23, projected win total 32.5 closed at DraftKings Sportsbook).

  • While straight-up wins may not be as “stunning” as other surprise contenders in the past, the actual shocking trend is how well Oklahoma City has treated spread bettors this season. The Thunder currently lead the entire NBA in total wins against the spread (37-23), and are second in the NBA behind only the Boston Celtics in cover percentage.

  • Their ability to not only surpass their projected win total before the month of March, along with leading the NBA in ATS wins is without question the most shocking betting trend of the 2019-2020 NBA season so far.

  • The Thunder travel to take on the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday night. They opened as 7.5-point favorites in that contest. VIEW THE LIVE ODDS

BY THE NUMBERS

With the NBA headed towards their prospective fourth quarter of the regular season, the sample size for the year isn’t quite complete, but filled enough to the point where team evaluations are largely settled. Yet, the Thunder continue to exceed expectations against them when it comes to betting opportunities throughout the year. With no rest on back-to-backs this season, Oklahoma City has covered the spread in just under 89% of their games (8-1). As a road underdog, the Thunder have gone 16-5, covering the spread 76.2% of the time. And as an underdog in general, OKC has gone 22-10, covering ATS 68.7% of the time. Those are simply incredible numbers.

What’s also unique about how Vegas has projected the Thunder is in normal positively-correlated spots. It appears they tend to be overvalued in situations that supposedly favor them. For example, when OKC has entered a game with a rest advantage over its opponent, it’s the only time they’ve failed to own a winning record against the spread all season. The Thunder are just 6-7, covering 46.2% of the time when they have the upper hand in rest against their opponent. Oklahoma City is also 16-13 as a favorite.

LOOKING AHEAD

The timing may be coincidental, but the Thunder as of Tuesday, March 3rd have lost their last four games in a row against the spread, despite going 2-2 straight up. In two of those games (against the Bulls in Chicago and then the Kings at home), they were 7.5 point favorites (like they are tonight) and were also blown out by Milwaukee most recently as a 10-point underdog. Oklahoma City has 22 games left in the regular season, facing teams with a combined winning percentage of .499. 

As more playoff seeding gets sorted out and teams looking in from the outside of the playoff race decide to go into full on “Tank Mode,” keep your eye on all the latest projections, best bets and more from BetQL to help you make the most informed bets possible. Click the button below to unlock tonight's best bets for this matchup!