Misjudged Lines: Best Futures Bets To Target After A Week Of Action
Oddsmakers have yet to adjust through the first part of the campaign
Futures betting can be challenging. The wait regarding return on investment can feel like forever, but fantasizing about raking in a big win can make things even more fun!
We're about 10 percent through the 72-game NBA campaign. It's still very early, but let's take a look at which lines are too good to be true at this point, as the sports betting world has generated plenty of opinions after only a handful of games. This could be a great time to take advantage of futures bets.
Get all of BetQL's best bets for the NBA season! Dating back a full calendar year, our five-star (max-value) bets have won 61% of the time!
James Harden To Win MVP - BetMGM (+2500)
Over the past four seasons, James Harden has racked up an MVP Award (2017-18), two second place finishes, and most recently, a third place finish. While the Houston Rockets star has been involved in nonstop trade rumors leading into the season, the calm has crept in after a bumpy storm.
Harden did all that he could to force the Rockets to trade him this offseason, but things didn't work out in his favor. Now, it's being reported that teams have lost interest in attempting to acquire him. It's looking less and less likely that he'll be traded this season.
As far as MVP odds go, this should boost the guard's opportunity. With Russell Westbrook out of the picture, Harden is viewed as the lone superstar in Houston. Playing with rehabilitated stars such as John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins, MVP voters are sure to give credit to Harden if he posts his typical numbers and pushes Houston into the postseason.
The Rockets are 2-2 and Harden's off to a great start. The lefty is averaging 37.0 points (45.5 percent from three), 11.0 assists, and 5.3 rebounds through three contests. It's shocking that Harden's the 10th-favorite to win the award on BetMGM given that he regularly finishes near the top of the list. This +2500 line for Harden will change sooner than later, so pounce now if you think he stays in Houston for the campaign, making him the lone superstar on a team that makes the postseason.
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Cleveland Cavaliers To Make Playoffs - FanDuel Sportsbook (+710)
After six games, the Cleveland Cavaliers are 4-2. They've defeated quality teams such as the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers, and they've done it mostly without Kevin Love. The power forward is out for a few weeks with a calf strain after logging 43 minutes of game time over two contests this season.
The Cavs made a great decision by acquiring Andre Drummond from the Detroit Pistons in order to move on from Tristan Thompson. While Thompson is a productive player, Drummond is on another level. The elite center is averaging 17.0 points and 14.2 rebounds per contest. His rebound rate of 26.0 percent currently leads the NBA. You can even bet on Drummond to lead the league in rebounding (-115 on BetMGM). In fact, the center has vaulted Cleveland into the top-three in defensive rating. The Cavaliers were last in the league with a 114.8 rating a season ago, but they're third with a splendid 101.8 defensive rating in 2020.
Larry Nance Jr. has filled into the starting rotation nicely with Love out. His defensive boost is nice with Love out, but their depth will be noticeable when they're at full strength. Darius Garland, the fifth overall selection in the 2019 NBA Draft, has been far more efficient early into his sophomore campaign. Garland has increased his points per game from 12.3 to 17.2, including a boost in playmaking (3.9 assists up to 6.3), and three-point rate (up from 35.5 percent to 46.9 percent). Collin Sexton is a scoring machine (26.0 points per contest) and JaVale McGee has provided a ton of production in just 17.5 minutes per game (10.5 points, 7.7 rebounds).
This team has a great blend of youth and veterans. It wouldn't be surprising to see them add before the trade deadline. At +710 to earn a playoff berth on FanDuel Sportsbook, why not? They were the worst team in the Eastern Conference last season, but earning the eighth seed via the play-in tournament doesn't seem so crazy right now, especially considering that this squad is missing a key starter and is thriving.
Draymond Green To Win DPOY - DraftKings Sportsbook (+6000)
Draymond Green made his 2020-21 season debut on Friday night against the Portland Trail Blazers. It was his first contest since February 27th, so it's easy to understand why his line wasn't anything impressive.
Green won the Defensive Player of the Year Award for the 2016-17 campaign. He also finished second in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, and he finished sixth in voting in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 campaigns. He's clearly no stranger to dominating the defensive end.
The Golden State Warriors have been a mess defensively to start the year. They've tallied the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA at 115.2 and are 2-3 early on. Here's where Green can earn major brownie points with voters. If he can get this team on track defensively, then he's bound to earn respect. The Warriors have posted the lowest rebound rate (45.8 percent), so there's one area that he can provide an immediate boost.
While Kelly Oubre is solid and Andrew Wiggins has shown improvement as a defender, it has been hardly noticed early on. Green's communication on the floor is key and he's always in the right place at the right time. He'll likely play a major role in the growth of second overall pick James Wiseman this year, too.
Green is far from a favorite to win the DPOY Award, as evidenced by the +6000 line at DraftKings Sportsbook. Still, can you believe that a $10 bet could earn you $600 if Green pulls another one out? Again, he should score some major points with voters if he can get this unit to have any success on defense. Considering his past resume in this department, +6000 feels a bit ridiculous. With Green back on the floor, this line won't last forever.