Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets Game 6 Odds, Betting Trends and Picks

Will the Bucks fight off elimination at home?

Reed Wallach - Jun 17, 2021, 11:52am EDT

Milwaukee Bucks (-6, 220) vs. Brooklyn Nets - 8:30 PM EST

BetQL Model Trends and Plays:

The Milwaukee Bucks are 22-18 to the OVER at home this season
Final score projection: Bucks 115- Nets 112.5

For all of BetQL’s NBA Playoff top plays click here.
* These are the model's ratings at the time the article was published. Star ratings can change due to line changes, injuries, and other breaking information.

Durant’s heroic performance masks two things that are hanging over this series: the health of the Nets and the inability of the Bucks to adjust game-to-game.

For the Nets, James Harden gutted out his hamstring ailment, playing all but two minutes in Game 5 despite being clearly hobbled. He had no lift on his patent step back jumper while also having no interest in taking the ball to the rim.

It’s tough to predict what kind of shape Harden will be in with only one day of rest, but he’s going to be available in Game 6.

That being said, the Bucks opted to keep Jrue Holiday, their best on-ball defender on Harden for the entirety of the game. Harden spent most of the game on offense operating at half court, acting as a decoy of sorts, but Milwaukee stayed fixated on him, limiting Holiday's defensive impact.

On the other end, the Bucks didn’t take advantage of the fact that the Nets were playing essentially four-on-five on defense. Harden could not get down in a defensive stance and Brooklyn did a great job of switching to get Harden onto the likes of P.J. Tucker or Brook Lopez when they were on the perimeter.

Milwaukee continued their trend of playing isolation basketball and relying on pull-up jumpers in Game 5. The team had 18 assists on 41 field goals despite the fact that the Nets were compromised on D. With Harden unable to move much, the Bucks played right into the Nets hand by not swinging the ball or generating advantageous switches.

As for Game 6, the Nets have bought themselves some time, only needing one win in two tries.

Durant played all 48 minutes on Tuesday in addition to Harden’s unbelievable workload. Brooklyn may punt this game if the Bucks build an early lead, but if the game is within earshot in the second half, expect the Nets to pull out this series.

We have seen time and time again this series that the Nets have been able to adapt to their surroundings and pull out games late while Milwaukee has squandered big leads in this series -- 21 points in Game 3 despite eeking that one out, and again in Game 5.

I see two very likely outcomes, either the Nets win outright (+185 on the money line) or the Bucks win by double digits (you can get -9.5 at +150).

My angle will be on the over, though. After hitting for the first time this series in Game 5, the total sits at 220 again. This feels low as the Nets are going to look to get their three-point shot going around Harden’s passing ability.

Yes, Jeff Green had an all time playoff performance, hitting seven-of-eight three's, but outside of him, the Nets shot 20% from deep.

Someone who needs to get going is Joe Harris. Harris is due for some positive shooting regression. After posting a league leading 76.4 eFG% in the regular season on catch-and-shoot opportunities, he has hit just one of his last 14, per Michael Gallagher of Establish the Run.

Ultimately, there is serious blowout potential with a Game 7 looming and the Nets coming off such an intense effort in Game 5. There is a chance that Milwaukee can hang a big number on Brooklyn’s defense if they concede the game early, but expect the Nets to fire from three at will as they look to stay close for Durant to take over late, sending this game over the total.

Pick: Over 220