Dallas' Home/Road ATS Splits Are Absolutely Insane
They've been dominant against the spread on the road, but have struggled against the spread at home
- The Dallas Mavericks have gone just 12-17 against the spread at home this season, one of the worst marks in the NBA.
- But, they’ve gone 19-7 ATS on the road, one of the best records in the NBA.
- The Mavericks are scoring less points at home this season; and have improved their SU record on the road this year, from the three years prior, from 24.4% to 67.9%.
- Over the last year, BetQL’s NBA Model has hit on 64.74% of Mavericks bets (across all types), including 64.13% on full-game over/unders, and 60.92% on full-game spreads!
- Tonight, they'll square off against the Spurs in San Antonio and will look to continue their ATS dominance.
Through 58 games this season the Dallas Mavericks are 35-23, which is good enough for the 12th best record in the NBA. What’s more impressive is their 31-24 record against the spread, but it becomes somewhat head-scratching when viewed through their home and away splits. At home the Mavericks have covered the spread 12 times while failing to cover on 17 occasions. Conversely, while on the road, Dallas has covered in 19 outings and only failed to cover in just seven games at an impressive 72% rate.
Normally one would expect a team to be more comfortable at home; like the Philadelphia 76ers who are 27-2 in their own building and only 9-20 on the road, or the Miami Heat who are 17-8 against the spread at home while being 12-18 against the spread on the road. These are also interesting splits but don’t raise an eyebrow quite like a team who has more success playing away from their own arena like the Dallas Mavericks, so what gives?
This year, the Mavericks have been just over .500 at home with a 16-14 straight-up record, but have only been the underdog in two of those games. In both of those games, they’ve failed to cover, and in the 27 games where they were the favorite, they have covered only 12 times. The Mavericks average 2.85 less points per game at home and their point differential is also worse at home (+5.93) vs. on the road (+6.96).
On the road, Mavericks have a much-better SU record at 19-9 but, unlike at home where they have been the favorite 93% of the time, they have only been the favorite 54% of the time as the away team. Typically teams will have better SU splits at home versus on the road and oddsmakers will take that into account when setting the lines, for example, the average team this season has scored 112.5 points at home while scoring 2.4 points less on the road at 110.1. In short, they have less favorable lines at home (which one would expect) even though they seem to play better on the road.
This is a young, exciting team led by the likes of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, but even without their two young superstars Dallas has shown some fight. This season, while either Luka or Kristaps has been missing from the lineup during a road game, the Mavs have gone 7-5 SU; and since the beginning of February they have played three games with both players out of the lineup and they are 2-1 in those games SU and ATS.
Typically when a trend starts to emerge, the lines will adjust to account for it, but this may not be the case with the Mavericks on the road. In the seasons prior to this year, Dallas has a SU record of 60-63 at home (48.8%) and 30-93 on the road (24.4%). You’re currently looking at a different Mavericks team since their trade in January of 2019 for Kristaps Prozingis and Tim Hardaway Jr., who are now two of their top three scorers. While it may be hard for them to continue at the clip they have gone this season, it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see Dallas cover on the road more often than not for the remainder of the year.