Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns: Previewing Western Conference Finals Game 1

The #2 seeded Phoenix Suns will host the #4 seeded Los Angeles Clippers in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. This series will mark the first time in history that the Clippers will have advanced to the conference finals while it will be the Suns’ first appearance in this round since 2010. The Suns will be playing their first basketball game in a week coming off a sweep of the Denver Nuggets in the second round. The Clippers won the final four games of their series against the #1 seeded Utah Jazz. 

The Suns are favored over the Clippers by four points in game 1. The Suns were fortunate to face two teams in the Nuggets and Lakers that couldn't shoot straight from distance. However, the Clippers present a far more imposing and challenging opponent from the three-point line.

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Three-Point Variance

Role players missing three-point shots in the postseason is an unsurprising feature of any playoff series. The Suns benefited tremendously from this common occurrence in their first two playoff matchups. The Lakers and Nuggets only shot 32.1% from the three-point line against the Suns. Phoenix surrendered an average of only 11.5 three-pointers per game in their first two playoff series.

The Suns’ “luck” with defending the three-point line may not continue against a team as potent as the Clippers. Los Angeles has hit an average of 14.7 three-pointers per game and are shooting over 40% from the three-point line in the playoffs. Unlike the Nuggets and Lakers, the Clippers will run a starting lineup in game 1 that consists of five players who all shot over 40% from the three-point line in the regular season. While the Clippers’ hot shooting may regress in the conference finals, the Suns may not be able to count on the same errant shooting that sank the Nuggets and Lakers.

Missing Stars

Kawhi Leonard is expected to miss the entire playoff series against the Suns while Phoenix PG Chris Paul’s is also out on Sunday. While Leonard is clearly the better player given his age, Paul’s absence may be more meaningful for the Suns. The Clippers already have plenty of experience playing without Leonard. They played 22 games this season without Leonard, including the last two games of their playoff series against the Jazz.

By contrast, the Suns have only played two games this season without Paul. The Suns lack a backup point guard who can mimic Paul’s playmaking. No other player on the Suns averaged at least 4.5 assists per game 

Role Reversal

Unlike their first two series, the Suns will actually have a size advantage against the Clippers. The Clippers have been playing primarily small-ball lineups with their tallest player at 6’9. Deandre Ayton should have an easy time putting up points against the diminutive Clippers’ frontcourt. The Suns’ biggest weakness is their rebounding but the Clippers may not be able to exploit that Achilles heel given their size limitations. If the Clippers are going to win the series, they will likely have to do so from the three-point line.

Prediction

The question in every game of this series will be by how much the Clippers can outscore the Suns from the three-point line. The Clippers beat the Suns in two of the three games they played during the regular season. The Clippers hit 19 more threes than the Suns in their two wins; the Suns actually hit one more three-pointer than the Clippers did in Phoenix’s only win. Kawhi Leonard also did not play in the one game that the Suns won during the regular season. Bettors should take the points with the Clippers as the Suns will initially have difficulty adjusting to facing a team that is competent from the three-point line.