Interestingly, while the Lakers have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, they rank 29th in fast break points allowed per game (16.6). But they’ve surrendered just 42.8 points in the paint (5th). Since it’s conceivable that Frank Vogel will place a combination of Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard on Nikola Jokic, points in the paint will likely be hard to come by for the Nuggets in this matchup (specifically to frontcourt players).
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Therefore, it will be essential that Denver’s mid-range and perimeter shooters come to play and that Denver leaks out and tries to get out on the break. The Lakers have allowed their opponents to shoot just 33.6 percent from three this season (5th in the NBA), so Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and company will have their hands full. As arguably the deepest team in the entire NBA, the Nuggets have a number of players that they can turn to off the bench, but have not had a consistent nightly source of points come from one player. Jamal Murray (18.5 points in 33.2 minutes) has shot 43.6 percent from the field while Jokic (15.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 6.0 assists in 31.0 minutes) and Will Barton (15.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists in 32.8 minutes) also have the potential to put up 30-plus points on any given night. The only problem is that no one knows when any of them (if any) will step up on any given night. Coach Mike Malone’s defensive-first philosophy has paid off so far, but Denver will most likely need at least one dominant offensive performance to beat LA tonight.
The Nuggets have defended the three-point line better than anyone else this season. Just 30.9 percent of opposing three-pointers have fallen through the net, which is a wildly-impressive stat in today’s perimeter-centric NBA. Unfortunately for Denver, the Lakers are not reliant on the three-ball. In fact, they’ve won 17 of 20 games while shooting just 35.8 percent from deep. LeBron James (25.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, 10.9 assists in 34.9 minutes) is the NBA’s assist leader and looks completely revitalized after last year’s debacle of a season. Anthony Davis (26.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.8 blocks in 34.6 minutes) has also been utterly dominant and has benefitted from LeBron’s deferral at various times on the offensive end. In all, you can count on both AD and LeBron to show up and deliver every single night.
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The rest of LA’s roster is built to support the aforementioned superstars. McGee and Howard split minutes at the center position and provide quality rebounding numbers as well as an overall defensive presence. Rajon Rondo spells LeBron at the backup point guard spot and has a veteran mindset. Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have provided minutes on the wing. In all, Vogel has been able to mix and match around his two stars, which has led to 12 different players playing in 10-plus games while averaging 14-plus minutes per contest.
This is going to be a fun one to watch! BetQL’s NBA Model lists one of these teams as the best bet ATS. Find out who it is!