Expect Massive Usage From James Harden Against The Mavericks This Friday

• The Houston Rockets will resume their season on July 31st against the Dallas Mavericks. The Rockets are currently 40-24 and are the sixth seed in the Western Conference, while the Mavericks are 40-27 and currently own the seventh seed.

• Harden’s usage rate fell throughout the season. While Harden’s overall usage rate still ranks second behind last season’s MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Harden’s usage dropped from a high of 38.4 percent in November to a low of 33.9 percent in February.

• Bettors should expect a healthy dose of Harden in the Rockets vs. Mavericks contest this Friday. Harden’s usage rate should rebound to where it was earlier in the season. Eric Gordon will miss the opener due to an injury that he recently sustained, and it's unknown how strong Russell Westbrook will be after recently recovering from COVID-19.

• The Rockets (+100) are currently one-point underdogs to the Mavericks (-120) this Friday. The over/under for the game stands at 226.5 points. Visit our game predictions page to see which bet our NBA model likes most!

A Declining Beard?

James Harden’s season has been a tale of two campaigns. In games that occurred from October 2019 to December 2019, Harden looked like a former MVP. In those 33 games, Harden averaged 38.2 points per game on 46.1 percent shooting overall, including a 38.3 percent mark from deep. By contrast, in games that occurred in 2020, Harden looked like a player on the decline. In those 28 games, Harden averaged 29.8 points on 40.0 percent shooting overall, including a 31 percent mark from beyond the arc.

What explains the drop in Harden’s numbers is his decrease in usage rate. Usage rate is generally defined as the percentage of the team’s plays in which a player is involved. Harden’s overall usage rate on the season remains high, as no qualifying player had a higher usage rate than Harden other than Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, the monthly trend in Harden’s usage rate clearly demonstrates a decline as the season progressed. In October and November, Harden’s usage rates were 38.2 percent and 38.4 percent, respectively. In December, Harden’s usage rate fell to 35.1 percent. The beard's usage rate continued to fall in January and February to 34.5 percent and 33.9 percent, respectively. Harden’s usage rate did rebound slightly in March (34.6 percent) before the season’s suspension.

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A Reversion To Earlier This Season

Bettors should expect Harden’s usage rate to rebound in the Orlando bubble. A new season will effectively be resuming on July 30th, as players have been idle for over four months, which is pretty much the length of an actual offseason. Any fatigue that Harden may have been experiencing during the season will have disappeared by now. On top of that, a slimmed down Harden could aid in his usage rate spiking, as he could be in better overall shape.

Furthermore, question marks surrounding the health of Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon should also lead to a reversion of Harden’s usage rate to where it was at the beginning of the season. Harden’s usage rate fell during the season as Westbrook’s usage rate increased. Westbrook’s usage rate from October 2019 to December 2019 was well behind Harden’s. However, Westbrook’s usage rate in January and February of 2020 was actually higher than Harden’s usage rate.

Westbrook announced earlier in the month that he had contracted the COVID-19 virus before arriving in Orlando. While Westbrook is expected to play against the Mavericks, no one really knows if he has fully recovered from the virus. Eric Gordon will miss the opener after suffering an injury during a scrimmage. The Rockets should be more reliant upon Harden now than they were in the months immediately preceding the season’s suspension.

Past Battles

Despite Houston's superior record, Dallas is actually a one-point favorite against them. The over/under for the game is 226.5 total points. The totals from the two previous Mavericks and Rockets contests this season were 260 and 249, respectively. Harden has played relatively well against Dallas this season. In their last two contests, Harden averaged 33.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game, but he only shot 27.5 percent from the three-point line. The Mavericks and Rockets split the two meetings. Regardless, expect a heavy dose of Harden this Friday as the Rockets continue their season against the Mavericks.

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