How to Bet the Hawks-Sixers Series Heading into Game 3

Has Philadelphia figured how to stop Trae Young

Reed Wallach - Jun 9, 2021, 9:55pm EDT

Philadelphia 76ers (-250)

The story of Game 1 was the play of Trae Young and how the Sixers were caught off guard by the high usage guard. Per Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer, by way of Second Spectrum, Danny Green covered Young on 49 possessions in Game 1, Matisse Thybulle 14, and Ben Simmons 8. Young scored 35 points and dished out 10 assists en route to the Hawks win.

In Game 2, though, Simmons guarded him 31 times, Thybulle 29 and Green twice. Young still got his 21 points and 11 assists, but shot below 40% from the floor and hit on only one of his seven three-point attempts. Doc Rivers put his two all-world defenders on Young, both significantly taller, to cut off Young's passing lanes and ability to get to his patent floater in the paint.

The team will live with a combined eight of 14 shooting from three from Atlanta reserves Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari in order to make Young uncomfortable.

The more Philly keeps the ball out of his hands the better for them. The Hawks committed 17 turnovers in Game 2, yet only allowed nine points on those, and still lost by 16. Philadelphia was third in the league in generating turnovers this season, per Cleaning the Glass data, and fourth in points off turnovers, per NBA.com. Don’t expect the Sixers to not cash in on sloppy play again.

If Simmons and Thybulle continue to take turns on Young, then that turnover metric is going to stabilize with the Hawks forced to rely on less capable ball handlers.

Atlanta Hawks (+200)

While freeing up Young is one issue, the Hawks don’t have an answer for Joel Embiid on the other end. The MVP runner up is averaging 39.5 points and 11 rebounds on 54% shooting on the field while taking more than 15 trips to the free throw line through two games.

Embiid has not showed any signs of being slowed down by his partially torn meniscus, but the slight tear is going to come down to pain tolerance. At this rate, Embiid seems prime to gut through it.

However, the best defense for Atlanta might have is to let Embiid cook. He put up similar numbers in Game 1, but the Sixers supporting cast let their star down. In Game 2, that wasn’t the case.

Tobias Harris, Seth Curry, and Shake Milton combined for 57 points on 60% shooting. Clint Capela can’t stay on Embiid -- he fouled out in 27 Game 2 minutes after posting a -25 +/- -- but the rest of the Hawks wings must check the other scoring threats. If Atlanta can’t slow down the likes of those three, then they aren’t going to be able to keep up after Philly made their own adjustment on defense to slow down Young.

The adjustment needed might be more Galo for John Collins. Galo is a more reliable floor spacer and hasn't been getting exposed on defense despite being slower footed than Collins. The Hawks need more of a scoring punch to offset Young getting shadowed by more capable defenders.

Prediction

While Atlanta looked great in Game 1, building a 20-point halftime lead, that was on the back of outlier shooting from beyond the arc. In the second half, the Sixers figured out how to cover Young and the Hawks offense and they nearly stormed back.

While Embiid’s injury may linger and potentially cause him to miss a game, the Sixers have enough scoring ability with players like Harris and Curry to allowed their defense to power them through the series.

Still at + money, I don’t see the Hawks getting more than one more game. Outside of the first 24 minutes of this series, Philly is outscoring Atlanta by 36 points. The Sixers have the best player on the court and the defense to slow down Atlanta's only elite ball handler.

Sixers take this series in no more than six.

Pick: Sixers -1.5 Games +110