Portland and Atlanta have ranked second-worst and third-worst in the NBA, respectively, in Defensive Rating over their last 10 games (per NBA.com), so I'm expecting this late-slate matchup between Damian Lillard and Trae Young to feature a bunch of points. Each of the last three Hawks games has finished over the total and an average of 246.3 total points were scored in those contests, thus creating the expectation for a shootout despite the many players that are either out with injuries or in COVID protocols.
As Dan pointed out in today's NBA Betting Playbook, Harden has recorded three triple-doubles in his last four games, averaging 35.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and 12.0 assists in that span. I'll take the over here on Harden's P+R+A total, as I'm expecting a high-scoring showdown between the Grizzlies and Nets tonight with little to no resistance from Ja Morant on defense against the red-hot Harden.
The Bulls are 21-12 ATS this season and 11-4 ATS at home, while the Magic are just 16-21 ATS. The Bulls have also covered the spread in three of their last five games and are 33-14 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two years. The Magic have also failed to cover spreads of 13.5, 14, 15 and 16 points as the underdog already this season and I think they’ll struggle to cover this 13-point spread on the road against the Bulls tonight.
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