NBA Staff Picks For Tuesday, Jan. 18

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Dan Karpuc: Pistons +14.5 at Warriors

Can you believe that the Warriors rank 28th in Offensive Rating over their last 10 games? Shocking. To make matters worse for Golden State, Draymond Green will miss this game due to injury and the slumping Stephen Curry is questionable due to a lingering hand issue. Detroit has won and covered the spread in each of their last three games (against the Magic, Jazz and Raptors) and have also gone 8-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season. They also have a couple longer-term historical trends working in their favor. Over the last two seasons under Dwane Casey, Detroit has gone 21-10 ATS versus teams that outscored their opponents by an average of 3.0+ points per game (+10.0 units, 32.3% ROI) and 36-23 ATS against teams that make 46% or more of their field goal attempts (+10.7 units, 17.5% ROI). On a two-game slate, this is the bet I’m targeting.

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Brad Pinkerton: Knicks +130 vs. T'Wolves

This is a bit of a flier with the Knicks coming off a home loss to the Hornets yesterday and the Wolves having just smoked the Warriors by 20 on Sunday, but it's also a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ value, according to BetQL. The Knicks had won five straight at home (twice as slight underdogs) prior to Monday's loss and they are 13-8 SU after a loss this season. Plus, they beat the T'Wolves, 96-88, on the road late last month. Meanwhile, Minnesota is an uninspiring 9-12 on the road this season and just 13-16 with one day's rest, so I don't see much of an advantage against the Knicks in a back-to-back (Knicks are 3-2 on no rest). I'm not all-in here, but I'll take the Knicks at plus-money.

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Lucy Burdge: Pistons-Warriors Under 218.5

The Warriors are averaging ​​109.9 points per game and the Pistons are averaging just 101.4, so between these two I see this one hitting the under. The Warriors are also 16-26 on the O/U this season, including 7-13 at home, so I really like the under here at 216.5. 

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Nick Ashooh: Knicks +3 vs. T'Wolves

Yes, I get it, New York has been a roller coaster this year. The Knicks have covered and won outright in three of their last four games, though, while Minnesota has failed to cover in two of the last three. The bigger trend to keep an eye on with the Knicks has been their defense. They're 6-4 SU over their last 10 games, holding opponents to just 98.4 points per game over that stretch. This is what the Knicks have had their success because of -- stopping other teams from scoring. That's what got this team to the playoffs last year, and it's something that they have to keep up the rest of the way. They're also holding opponents to 34-percent shooting from 3 over their last 10 games as well.

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