Revisiting Orlando's 12-Game OVER Streak
This has been the most improbable trend of the 2019-2020 NBA season
By Dan Karpuc - Mar 11, 2020, 7:55pm
- Anyone else miss basketball? We are all feeling the pain together! Let's take a look back and explore one of the NBA season's most insane betting trends!
- After starting the season 22-30, the OVER has hit in 12-straight Orlando Magic games. Seven of these matchups have taken place on the road while five have occurred in Orlando. In all, this is arguably the craziest trend to take place during the 2019-2020 NBA season.
- This can be attributed to an alteration that Magic head coach Steve Clifford made at the beginning of this run. Playing at a quicker pace has benefitted Orlando’s ability to score, but hurt their ability to defend, thus resulting in the improbable streak listed above. The Magic rank 26th in pace (98.7) this season, but have ratcheted up their style of play over the last 12 games, as indicated by the fact that they rank 12th in the NBA during that span (101.29). The consequences of this up-tempo style have been simple and evident: more shots for both Orlando and their opponents have led to higher point totals.
- In the 53 games before this streak, the Magic scored just 44.3 points in the paint per game, one of the worst marks in the NBA. During the streak, they’ve attacked the rim and have scored 52.7 points in the paint per contest (T-6th most). On the campaign, they average just 45.8 (25th). Their increased focus on getting better looks has resulted in a 48.6% field goal percentage during the streak (2nd-best) and it’s clear that the team’s core has benefitted. Nikola Vucevic (21.8 points on 52.1% shooting), Terrence Ross (20.7 points on 46.4% shooting), Evan Fournier (20.2 points on 52.3% shooting), Aaron Gordon (17.3 points on 48.6% shooting) and Markelle Fultz (13.7 points on 52.2% shooting) have all averaged double-figures in points during the 12-game span and have all lit it up from the field.
- Over the 12-game streak, the Magic have recorded 29.1 assists per game while their opponents have posted 27.8 per game (28th). For context, in the 53 games before the streak, Orlando recorded 22.9 assists per contest while their opponents posted 23.7 per contest. The Magic have taken care of the ball all season, but they’ve combined their ability to facilitate effectively with an ability to limit turnovers. Orlando has turned the ball over just 12.2 times per contest in the 12-game stretch (3rd-best), which is extremely impressive after the midseason offensive scheme change.
- Further, before the All-Star break, Orlando ranked 7th in Defensive Rating (107.4), but during this 12-game stretch, their defensive effort has fallen off the map. The Magic rank 27th in Defensive Rating over that span. That’s one of the tradeoffs that playing at a quicker pace requires, but Orlando has gone 8-4 straight-up (9-3 ATS) since making the change.
- But, this recent defensive lapse might not continue for long. Orlando has allowed just 9.3 second-chance points (best), 13.8 points off turnovers (2nd-best) and 11.6 fast-break points (5th) during that span. The issue: the Magic have been gashed from three-point range. Their opponents have converted a ridiculous 14.8 three-pointers (worst) on 36.9 three-point attempts (25th) for a 40.0% rate (27th). Further, their opposition has converted 80.8% of their free throws (fourth-highest rate).
- When the Magic square off against the Chicago Bulls on Thursday, all eyes will be on whether or not this wild streak of overs will continue. Keep in mind that Fournier will miss the game for Orlando while Zach LaVine is questionable for Chicago. All readers can access our model’s projections for FREE by clicking the button below!