The Bucks Have Been Mortal ATS On the Road
The Bucks are 17-15 ATS away from Milwaukee and have failed to cover five of their last seven road games
- Even with a disappointing road loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday night, the Milwaukee Bucks still maintain the best record in the NBA at 53-10. The Bucks would have home court advantage through the entire playoffs if the postseason started today. Milwaukee has made their backers money this season at home with their 19-12 ATS record. However, bettors have not experienced the same level of success with wagering on the Bucks on the road. The Bucks are 17-15 ATS away from Milwaukee and have failed to cover five of their last seven road games.
- As Betql discussed several weeks ago, oddsmakers have the utmost respect for the Bucks on the road. This respect has made it more difficult for the Bucks to cover games away from Milwaukee. The books have set the average Bucks’ spread from their 32 road games at -7.5. To put this number in context, the Bucks’ average spread on the road is effectively equal to the Lakers’ overall point differential. The Bucks are just 4-6 ATS on the road as a double-digit favorite.
- The Bucks have one of the best offenses in the NBA. Milwaukee’s firepower though is less imposing on the road. The Bucks average over five fewer points per game on the road than they do at home. Milwaukee has the second best home offensive rating but just the 13th best road offensive rating.
- Bettors should not overreact to the Bucks’ recent struggles on the road. At least one of the trio of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Eric Bledsoe did not play in four of the Bucks’ road ATS defeats.
- The Bucks look to get back on track on the road Sunday night against the Phoenix Suns and Giannis (knee) is questionable.
Huge Spreads On The Road
The consequence of Milwaukee’s success this season has been that bettors have needed to pay a premium to back the Bucks, especially on the road. The average spread that oddsmakers have set for the Bucks on the road is -7.5, which is a higher number than the average point differential of every winning team in the NBA except for the Lakers.
The Bucks have been favored by double-digits in 10 of their road games. They are 4-6 ATS in these 10 games. The challenge with backing the Bucks in these types of games is that they frequently build huge cushions against their opponents, which often leaves the fate of a bet in the hands of Milwaukee’s third unit for an extended period of time in the fourth quarter.
A Less Imposing Offense On The Road
The Bucks have been a scary team for defenses to face in Milwaukee. The Bucks have the second best home offensive rating and average 121.7 points per game at home. The Bucks are less imposing offensively on the road. The Bucks’ road offensive rating is just the 13th best in the NBA. Milwaukee averages 116 points per game on the road, almost six fewer points per game than their home scoring average.
The Bucks are a less proficient three-point shooting team on the road than they are at home. They average 1.6 fewer three-point field goals on the road than they do at home. Giannis Antetokounmpo is also not as productive offensively on the road. The reigning MVP averages almost three fewer points on the road than he does at home despite playing more minutes per game on the road.
Bettors should not overreact to the Bucks’ recent struggles to cover games on the road. The Bucks are potentially a historically elite regular season team. However, bettors should continue to expect large spreads in Milwaukee’s road games.
Bettors also need to carefully review the Bucks’ pre-game injury reports before placing wagers on Milwaukee. In four of their road ATS losses, at least one of the trio of Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Bledsoe did not play. Antetokounmpo received a precautionary MRI on his knee on Saturday and is questionable to suit up for Sunday’s contest as a result.
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