By all indications, the Nuggets are having a terrific season. They are on pace for over 55 wins and would have home court advantage in the first round if the playoffs started today. However, bettors counting on the Nuggets to cover spreads on the road have not had a good season. The Nuggets are just 13-14 ATS away from Denver. In their last three road games, Denver did not come close at all to covering the spread.
The Nuggets maintain an incredibly efficient offense despite not having anyone on their roster among the top 20 players in scoring average per game. Denver’s offensive rating is one of the 10 best in the NBA even though the Nuggets hit the sixth fewest three-point field goals per game and play at the second-slowest pace. The Nuggets do excel at taking care of the ball as they rank in the top 10 in fewest turnovers per game.
The Nuggets’ discipline with the ball becomes much more pedestrian away from Denver. The NBA defines turnover percentage as the percentage of a team’s plays that end in a turnover. At home, the Nuggets’ turnover percentage is the sixth-best in the league. On the road, the Nuggets’ turnover percentage falls to just the 16th-best.
The Nuggets have taken years off their backers’ lives with the way in which they have started road games this season. The Nuggets have trailed at the end of the first quarter in 15 of their last 17 road games. Their first quarter deficits have not been particularly small either as their average first quarter point differential in their last 17 road games is -6.05, an astounding number for an elite team. Denver has even trailed by double-digits at the end of the first quarter in six of these games.
To the Nuggets’ credit, they did come back to win many of these games. But it has been difficult for bettors to back a team on the road that so frequently spots an opponent the lead at the end of the first quarter.
Opponents have been much more successful at scoring against the Nuggets away from Denver. At home, the Nuggets give up on average 105.6 points per game. On the road, the Nuggets give up on average 109.7 points per game. It’s not particularly surprising that the Nuggets surrender significantly more points on the road. At home, the Nuggets can use the Denver altitude to defensively overwhelm opponents that are not accustomed to playing in such conditions. Unfortunately for the Nuggets, the Denver altitude does not travel with them on the road.
Sports bettors face a dilemma with the Nuggets. Should investors assume that an elite team like the Nuggets will eventually cover games at an elite percentage on the road? Or should bettors just stay away from the Nuggets whenever they play away from Denver?
Saturday night’s contest between the Nuggets and the Cavaliers in Cleveland should provide bettors with a better idea as to how to approach the Nuggets on the road for the rest of the season. The moribund Cavaliers are precisely the type of home team that the Nuggets should beat handily and cover against. If Denver comes out flat in another road game and struggles again to get their backers to the window against the lowly Cavaliers, bettors should probably think harder before purchasing another Nuggets ATS ticket when they’re on the road.
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