Advanced Insight: Knicks at Wizards

A look at today's unlocked NBA matchup using BetQL's premium tools

By BetQL Staff - Mar 10, 2020, 10:58am EDT

Keith Allison, Flickr

On Tuesday night, the Washington Wizards (23-40) host the New York Knicks (20-44) in a matchup of two of the Eastern Conference’s worst teams.

The Wizards have gone 33-29 (53.2%) against the spread while the Knicks have gone 32-30 (51.6%). About nine hours before tipoff, Washington is listed as a 4.5-point favorite and a 2-star value in our model due to the fact that it lists them as a 5.5-point favorite (a one-point difference). Keep in mind that if the line creeps towards (or away from) that number, our star rating will change accordingly.

The Knicks have gone 9-22 (16-14 ATS) on the road this season while the Wizards have gone 15-16 (18-13 ATS) at home. Further, New York has gone 11-39 (25-24 ATS) as an underdog, including 5-21 (12-13 ATS) as a road underdog.

The OVER has gone 36-26 (58.1%) in Washington’s games, but just 28-35 (44.4%) in New York’s contests, which makes betting on this 228-point total very difficult. Our model lists the over as a 1-star bet due to the lack of value on the current line (but that can change as the day rolls on).

The Wizards are listed as a -200 consensus moneyline bet which is a 3-star value in our model due to the fact that it labels them at -270 (a 70-point difference). Keep in mind that if the line creeps towards (or away from) that number, our star rating will change accordingly.

Washington is 2-1 straight-up against the Knicks this season: 121-115 (December 23rd), 100-107 (December 28th), 114-96 (February 12th).

The Wizards have one of the best offenses in the entire NBA. In fact, they rank 6th in the league in scoring (115.5 points per game). However, they have the league’s worst defense by many advanced stats, including Defensive Rating (115.1). Unfortunately for the Knicks, they average 105.2 points per contest (29th) and rank 23rd in Defensive Rating (112.3). Therefore, it’s no coincidence that they’ve been awful this year.

Bradley Beal (30.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.1 assists in 36.0 minutes) has been performing at an All-NBA level all year long and will have a major opportunity to put up plenty of buckets in this contest. Meanwhile, a frontcourt containing Davis Bertens, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant and Mo Wagner are all healthy once again, which is a major boost for Washington. While Ish Smith is still out, Shabazz Napier has taken over the point guard duties and has the proven ability to be a floor general.

Julius Randle (19.3 points, 9.8 rebounds in 32.5 minutes) has been New York’s only consistent scoring threat this season. While RJ Barrett has shown moments and glimpses of his potential, he hasn’t been reliable. The same can be said for most of the team’s youngsters, as well as Elfrid Payton, who has been seeing a lot of minutes lately. However, beware: New York’s rotations have been impossible to predict this season and with nothing to play for, it’s difficult to project who will be on the court and for how long.