2021 NBA Draft Odds and Best Bets!
The top 3 is starting to look finalized, but we can bet on two other outcomes in the lottery!
Reed Wallach - Jul 21, 2021, 12:52pm EDT
With the NBA Finals concluding Tuesday night in a Milwaukee Bucks title, sports bettors turn their attention towards the NBA Draft, which is next Thursday, July 29th.
There seems to be a growing consensus on who will be the top three picks in the Draft, with it likely going to be Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, and Evan Mobley in that order.
At BETMGM, Cunningham is -5000 to be the No. 1 pick to the Detroit Pistons.
Meanwhile, after spending a year with the G-League Ignite team, Green is -165 to be the No. 2 pick to the Rockets, providing them a scoring wing.
Lastly, USC’s Mobley is a two-way monster, standing seven feet tall. He is -180 to be the No. 3 pick to the Cavaliers and +160 to go second.
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Davion Mitchell Over 8.5 (-105)
This opened at 7.5 a few weeks back when NBA Draft props started to populate, but I still like this at 8.5.
Mitchell was a key cog to Baylor’s National Championship run this season, and may turn out to be a solid pro, but he is being overvalued in the betting markets on his name.
For starters, Mitchell will be 23 by the time his rookie season starts. Typically, older players tend to slip in the Draft with team’s picking early preferring to bet on upside rather than prospects about to enter their prime.
With the Golden State Warriors picking No. 7, and equipped with Stephen Curry, people are tying Mitchell to them as a defensive minded guard and plug-and-play rotation player to help Curry and the Warriors reach the NBA Finals again.
However, reports are linking the Warriors to a more pure scorer in UConn’s James Bouknight or Arkansas wing Moses Moody. As well, the Warriors may package the pick all together to acquire veteran talents. There is no sure thing at No. 7, but Mitchell is becoming less and less likely.
Meanwhile, at No. 8 the Magic are on the clock with their second pick at this point (they also pick No. 5). Mitchell doesn’t figure into the Magic’s plans, who have Markelle Fultz as well as Cole Anthony at guard and would be better off taking a higher upside prospect, or moving this pick.
Mitchell’s range may start at No. 10 with the Pelicans and I see value in grabbing this cheap price on him to go over 8.5.
Matchup: Corey Kispert Picked Before Jalen Johnson (+100)
I’m going with the safe prospect over the wild card at even money.
What does every NBA team look for nowadays? Spot up shooters.
Kispert is arguably the best three-point shooter in the Draft and has been selected in the lottery in nearly all reputable mock drafts. He shot 40% from beyond the arc over four years at Gonzaga.
Meanwhile, Johnson comes off a turbulent year at Duke in which he left the program early (he also left IMG Academy during his senior season the year before).
There is no denying his talent, but there may be some red flags for Johnson. I can see him slipping further down into the teens while I see Kispert as a lottery pick.
With an easier fit on more teams, I see these two prospects trending in opposite directions ahead of the Draft next Thursday.
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