Will Houston's Impressive Strikeout Rate Continue In 2020?

• The Houston Astros had four of the top nine hitters in regards to strikeout rate last season, perhaps pointing to continued offensive success in 2020.

• As a team, the Astros had the fewest strikeouts in the majors in 2019, while also launching the third-most home runs.

• Could Houston’s low strikeout rate be somehow tied to their recently uncovered sign-stealing scandal?

• The Astros regular-season win totals line sits at 35.5 games (.591 win rate). They're -155 to win the AL West and are +800 to win the World Series, per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Put The Ball In Play

There appears to be a strong correlation between the teams that avoid strikeouts and the teams that win games. While the Houston Astros struck out the fewest in 2019, the Washington Nationals, who beat Houston in the World Series, had the fourth-fewest strikeouts during the season. The Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics, and Los Angeles Dodgers all ranked among the top-eight teams with the fewest strikeouts and all made the postseason. Oddly enough, the Pittsburgh Pirates, who were terrible during the second half of the season, had the second-fewest strikeouts in 2019, behind only the Astros.

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An Unlikely Combination

Making Houston’s strikeout rate all the more impressive is the fact that the Astros also hit the third-most home runs in the big leagues. Most teams are willing to accept strikeouts if hitters also produce power, but the Astros enjoyed the best of both worlds. The quartet of Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, Josh Reddick, and Alex Bregman combined for 108 home runs, which accounted for 37.5 percent of the team’s total home runs. With Gurriel hitting 31 long-balls and Bregman hitting 41, while earning runner-up honors in the MVP race, the Astros got a significant amount of their power from hitters who did so without striking out at an alarming rate.

Something Fishy is Going On?

Of course, everything the Astros do these days has to be taken with a grain of salt given their sign-stealing scandal. Over the last five years, the strikeout rate in the majors has continued to increase steadily, as it has for the past 15 years, inching closer to a rate of 24 percent. However, Houston’s strikeout rate peaked at around 26 percent less than a decade ago, but has settled around 18 percent in recent years when the Astros have emerged as one of the elite teams in the American League.

Is it possible that the Astros are striking out less because they knew what pitches were coming? The team’s strikeout numbers in 2020 could provide a lot of insight into whether or not the last few years are a result of cheating, or a sign that the Astros are just that good offensively. Time will tell!

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