Top 3 MLB Model Trends: May 4, 2021
There are 17 games on Tuesday’s packed MLB slate, but these recommended bets from BetQL’s Model will give you an edge
There are 17 games on Tuesday’s packed MLB slate, but here are three recommended bets from BetQL’s Model that will give you an edge. Keep in mind that we went a perfect 8-0 on run line bets yesterday and if you bet $100 on each, you’d be up $642.03 right now! Here are today’s best plays.
White Sox (-110, 1st 5 Inn.) @ Indians
BetQL Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Game: White Sox (15-12) at Reds (13-14)
Probables: Dylan Cease (1-0, 2.96 ERA) vs. Jeff Hoffman (2-1, 3.33 ERA)
Key Trend: BetQL’s Model has gone 20-5 (80%) on 1st 5 inning moneyline bets in Dylan Cease’s starts. If you bet $100 on each, you’d be up $991.24 right now.
Analysis: On the surface, it looks like Hoffman may have turned things around as a member of the Reds, having arrived from the thin air of Colorado. However, his walk rate is up, strikeout percentage is down and, per FanGraphs, his 45.1% hard hit rate is above his career mark of 39.7%. In other words, negative regression is coming his way soon, as his low .265 BABIP suggests. Our model is giving the Sox a 57.1% chance to be leading after the first five innings and projects Chicago to score 5.5 runs in this game.
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Mets-Cardinals UNDER 6.5 Runs
BetQL Rating: ⭐⭐⭐
The Game: Mets (11-12) at Cardinals (17-12)
Probables: Jacob deGrom (2-2, 0.51 ERA) vs. Johan Oviedo (0-0, 2.79 ERA)
Key Trend: BetQL’s Model has gone 20-4 (83.3%) across all bets in Oviedo’s starts. If you bet $100 on each, you’d be up $1,352.67 right now.
Analysis: In case you missed it, the Mets have criminally deprived deGrom of run support over his career. In 188 MLB starts, he has a career 2.55 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and has struck out 1,418 hitters while allowing 957 hits in 1,204.2 innings. However, the back-to-back NL Cy Young award winner’s win-loss record is 72-53 and he holds a 2-2 record in 2021 despite leading the NL with an incredible 0.51 ERA and sparkling 0.57 WHIP through five starts. Rather than betting on New York as a heavy -210 favorite, placing a wager on under 6.5 total runs scored makes more sense. The Mets can’t be trusted.
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Yankees-Astros UNDER 9.0 Runs
BetQL Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Game: Astros (15-13) at Yankees (14-14)
Probables: Zack Greinke (2-1, 3.44 ERA) vs. Domingo German (2-2, 4.05 ERA)
Key Trend: BetQL’s model has gone 22-14 (61.1%) on O/U bets in Domingo German starts. If you bet $100 on all of them, you’d be up $578.85 right now.
Analysis: Did you know that the Yankees currently rank 25th in runs scored and the Astros rank 25th in home runs hit? Sure, Houston ranks 4th in total runs scored (which is what really matters here), but it’s clear that the Bronx Bombers have underperformed, especially since their recent series against the lowly Tigers inflated their overall stats. The under is 18-10 (64.3%) in Yankees games this season, the 2nd-highest mark in baseball.
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