MLB Simulation: 2022 Pennants & World Series
We simulated every postseason game 10,000 times; here are the results
Dan Karpuc - Oct 4, 2022, 1:13pm EDT
After simulating every MLB postseason game 10,000 times, our model has projected its American League and National League Pennant winners and World Series champion! Scroll down to check out the forecasted results and take advantage of the current odds with our exclusive sportsbook offers!
American League Pennant: Astros
We project the Astros to beat the Yankees in the American League Championship series (64% probability) with the most probable outcome being a Houston victory in six games (21% probability).
Since Houston has a first-round bye due to their seeding, the model is giving them a 61.4% chance to beat the Blue Jays, who are projected to get by the Mariners in the Wild Card Round.
The Yankees also have a first-round bye due to their seeding and the model is giving them a 57% chance to get past the Guardians, who are projected to beat the Rays in the Wild Card Round.
The best odds you can find on the Astros to win the AL Pennant right now is +175 at DraftKings.
After simulating every MLB postseason game 10,000 times, our model has projected its American League and National League Pennant winners and World Series champion! Scroll down to check out the forecasted results and take advantage of the current odds with our exclusive sportsbook offers!
American League Pennant: Astros
We project the Astros to beat the Yankees in the American League Championship series (64% probability) with the most probable outcome being a Houston victory in six games (21% probability).
Since Houston has a first-round bye due to their seeding, the model is giving them a 61.4% chance to beat the Blue Jays, who are projected to get by the Mariners in the Wild Card Round.
The Yankees also have a first-round bye due to their seeding and the model is giving them a 57% chance to get past the Guardians, who are projected to beat the Rays in the Wild Card Round.
The best odds you can find on the Astros to win the AL Pennant right now is +175 at DraftKings.
National League Pennant: Dodgers
The model projects the Dodgers to beat the Cardinals in the National League Championship series (63% probability) with the most probable outcome being a Los Angeles victory in six games (20% probability).
The Cardinals may seem like a surprise to get into the NL Championship series as a Wild Card team, but the model has a firm projection on that outcome. St. Louis has a 62.8% chance to beat the Phillies in the Wild Card Round and then a 54.7% chance to beat the Braves in the NL Divisional Round, which is the most controversial outcome from the simulation.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers have a 62.7% chance to get past the Mets in the Divisional Round. New York is projected to easily beat the Padres in the Wild Card Round, but LA has a clear edge against them based on our data. In the head-to-head matchup in the National League Championship Series, the Dodgers would stack up well against the Cardinals.
Lock in the Dodgers to win the NL Pennant right now with +150 odds at BetRivers.
World Series Winner: Dodgers
We project the Dodgers to beat the Astros in the World Series (58% probability) with the most probable outcome being another Los Angeles victory in six games (19% probability).
Get +300 odds on the Dodgers winning it all at BetMGM right now!
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