Pitching Analysis For Every July 4th MLB Game

Get insight for all 14 games below

NATIONALS SP PATRICK CORBIN (4-10, 6.06 ERA)

Sporting a 6.06 ERA and 1.70 WHIP, Patrick Corbin has been an absolute disaster for the Nationals this season, with the lone exception of his last outing against the Pirates. In that contest, he lasted 8.0 innings and struck out 12 while allowing just one earned run. He showed shades of his old self due to the effectiveness of his slider. Seven of those strikeouts came off of that pitch and he had a 73.7% whiff rate on it (his season whiff rate on sliders had been 32.7%). The southpaw admitted that the pitch felt good out of his hand. “Slider was good today,” Corbin said, per the Washington Post. “I thought [catcher Riley Adams] did a great job back there. Just one of those nights where it seemed everything was clicking, and it just shows all the work that we’ve been doing to try to get to this point.” 

In the middle of a six-year, $140 million deal, Washington hopes to get this type of production out of him moving forward. Luckily for him (and them), the Marlins rank dead-last in the Majors with a .214 average against left-handed pitchers, second-to-last with a .283 on-base-percentage and second-to-last with a .334 slugging percentage against that handedness. They’ve also hit just 14 homers against lefties (third-fewest) with 56 RBI (15 less than any other team).

ORIOLES SP DEAN KREMER (2-1, 1.29 ERA)

After posting a 7.55 ERA in 53.2 innings pitched last season, not much was expected from Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer this year, especially after he hurt his oblique right after Spring Training. However, it appears as though he took that time to re-tool and re-define himself as a pitcher. Per MLB.com, with three consecutive scoreless outings of at least five innings (18.2 in total), Kremer tied an Orioles record accomplished last by Matt Harvey, Kevin Gausman, Fernando Valenzuela and Jim Palmer, among only eight prior to do so in O's history (since 1954). 

“It's been a combination of a bunch of different things,” Kremer explained after his last start, per MLB.com. “Getting hurt, obviously you don't want that, but it gave me a chance to step away, rethink and whatnot. But that and then talking with coaches, talking with mental staff, as well, all take a part in what's happening.” It will be interesting to see if he can keep this success going, but it’s clear that he’s on a roll at the moment.

TIGERS SP GARRETT HILL (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Garrett Hill is a 26 year old who was taken by the Tigers in the 26th round of the 2018 MLB Draft. What stands out from his minor league numbers is his ability to rack up strikeouts. This year, he had an absurd 40.9% strikeout rate at the Double-A level and then a 28.7% strikeout rate in Triple-A. His 4.06 ERA at Triple-A certainly creates some cause for concern, but this could be an opportunity to bet over a low K prop if books don’t give him any respect. Keep in mind that this is also the first game in a doubleheader, so Cleveland might be resting some normal starters.

RED SOX SP MICHAEL WACHA (6-1, 2.69 ERA)

In 13 starts, Michael Wacha has been remarkably consistent, as evidenced by the fact that he allowed over three earned runs just twice. In 70.1 innings pitched, he’s allowed just 56 hits and seven home runs while striking out 50 and walking 22. At home, he’s been virtually un-hittable, with a 3-1 record, 1.39 ERA and .191 batting average over 32.1 innings in six starts. Lefties have managed a .155/.234/.250 slash line against him this year as well, which is pretty remarkable. Another dominant outing and win could move his All-Star Game hopes forward even more.

BREWERS SP ERIC LAUER (6-3, 4.02 ERA)

Eric Lauer has allowed eight home runs over his last three starts and now has given up 16 on the season through 13 starts, the same number he gave up all of last season. Per Reviewing The Brew, the long-ball issue has mainly been due to a lack of effectiveness with two pitches: his curveball and cutter. “... Four home runs have come courtesy of the curveball and three via the cutter in 2022. Both of these pitches have been problematic this year. His curveball has a .622 slugging percentage against with a xSLG of .756. The cutter has a .682 slugging percentage against. The success opposing batters are having against the curveball and cutter are drastically different when compared to 2021’s statistics. With neither of these pitches possessing elite movement or spin, location can be an assumed problem, especially given the extremely high expected slugging percentage against.”

We will see if Lauer can keep the ball in the park against the Cubs, who have hit 22 homers against left-handed pitching this year, 12th-best in the Majors.

ROYALS SP JONATHAN HEASLEY (1-4, 5.20 ERA)

The last time Jonathan Heasley faced the Astros, Houston walked away with a 7-4 win back on June 5th. In that game, this was his pitching line: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 2 BB. As a whole, he’s allowed 44 hits in 45.0 innings, striking out 35 and walking 24. Left-handed hitters have fared much better against the righty, as evidenced by the fact that seven of the eight homers he’s allowed have come to hitters on that side of the plate, along with a .297/.385/.593 slash line.

Therefore, guys like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are some of the best HR prop targets on this slate. Per FanGraphs, Heasley’s 5.61 FIP is worse than his 5.20 ERA, which means he’s been ineffective and worse than his already-bad ERA number. With that being said, Houston’s offense is one of the best spots of the day.

D-BACKS SP MADISON BUMGARNER (3-8, 3.63 ERA)

Last time out, Madison Bumgarner became the 87th pitcher in MLB history to reach 2,000 strikeouts.  "It's special for sure," he said after the game, per MLB.com. "I'm not taking that for granted. I'm thankful for the opportunity to do that. This game has been around for a long time, and not many people have been able to do that. So I'm blessed for sure, and I'm thankful that we were able to do that."

MadBum, however, hasn’t been blessed by run support this year. In fact, he’s gotten absolutely no run support (as in zero runs) in four of his last six starts. Arizona has lost six of his last seven starts overall and at this point, it’s very difficult to target any of Bumgarner’s props, except maybe under his strikeout total. In 79.1 innings pitched, he’s only fanned 57.

TIGERS SP ALEX FAEDO (1-4, 4.84 ERA)

Faedo will start Game 2 of the doubleheader after recently being sent back down to Triple-A. As the 27th man on the roster of a bad team, Faedo is sporting a 4.84 ERA as a fly ball pitcher, something that usually doesn’t succeed in today’s MLB. In fact, he’s recorded 104 fly ball outs compared to 52 ground balls and 39 strikeouts. Be sure to check the Guardians lineup, but this could be a nice opportunity to back Cleveland’s team total also since some bullpen pieces will likely be used in Game 1.

REDS SP HUNTER GREENE (3-9, 5.72 ERA)

22 year old Hunter Greene has been showing glimpses of why he’s considered one of the best prospects in the sport. In 74.0 innings pitched, he’s allowed 67 hits with 93 strikeouts and 32 walks. However, he has struggled getting clutch outs and also keeping the ball in the yard (20 home runs against). He’s learning as he gets more and more experience and said the following after only lasting 4.0 innings against the Cubs last time out, via MLB.com. “I walked two hitters [with] one hit and that scores them. I’m trying to limit my walks and make sure that doesn’t happen. It makes it a lot easier for the outcome not to come out that way off of one hit. I felt really good with my body. There were times I felt like I overthrew a little bit, got a little jumpy and didn’t do the best of doubling up on my pitches. That’s kind of the takeaway from today.”

Unfortunately for Greene, the Mets own the best batting average against right-handed pitching (.261) in the entire MLB and have struck out the second-fewest times against that handedness.

PADRES SP SEAN MANAEA (3-3, 3.92 ERA)

"I always want to go as deep as I can. Having the six-man just makes it a little bit easier to do it, just from a rest perspective." That’s what Manaea recently said about San Diego’s commitment to a six-man rotation, per MLB.com. In 85.0 innings pitched through 14 starts, the southpaw has allowed 66 hits while striking out 89 and walking 31. Expect Seattle to post an extremely right-handed heavy lineup against him; he’s allowed an elte .145/.245/.277 slash line in 83 at-bats against left-handed hitters this year and has a very deceptive motion that makes batting against him very difficult from that side.

BRAVES SP KYLE WRIGHT (9-4, 3.03 ERA)

Kyle Wright is in the midst of a breakout campaign for the Braves and has picked up individual wins in five of his last six outings, all of which came in the month of June. “I’ve always seen it, but I think the first big moment was during last year’s World Series,” teammate Adam Duvall said of his talent after his last start, per MLB.com. “It was comparable to Charlie [Morton] with the sinkers and curveballs. I was playing center behind him and the shape of the pitches were similar. He’s taken a huge step this year.”

None of the current Cardinals hitters have seen Wright yet with the lone exception of Paul Goldschmidt, who walked against him in one at-bat, so it will be interesting to see how the St. Louis lineup adapts to his mix of pitches. The Cards rank 4th in baseball with 4.79 runs scored per contest, so this is a tough matchup for the young righty.

TWINS SP DYLAN BUNDY (4-4, 4.71 ERA)

A few weeks ago, Dylan Bundy admitted that this was why he had success in one of his best starts of the year. “Commanding the ball and getting some of the pitches I need to get down in the zone, getting them down, especially with two strikes; that’s kind of been a weakness,” he said, via MLB.com. After allowing four home runs in just 6.1 innings across two starts in early June, Bundy hasn’t allowed a single long ball in 19.0 innings across his last three outings and has been sharp in the process, surrendering just four earned runs in those innings.

BLUE JAYS SP ALEK MANOAH (9-2, 2.09 ERA)

Manoah is firmly in the AL Cy Young race due to one of the best pitches in the sport: his slider. The pitch breaks out of the zone against right-handed hitters and jams lefties and batters have a dismal .174 against the pitch, which has a 31.1% whiff rate. Sports Illustrated did some digging and found that “Manoah’s slider is averaging 15.6 inches of horizontal movement this season. When compared to MLB sliders thrown at similar velocities, that’s 5.3 inches, or 52%, more movement than average. In his rookie season, Manoah’s slider averaged 15.5 inches of horizontal break, ranking 16th out of 370 qualifying MLB sliders.”

Oakland’s lineup is abysmal and they’re always a great team to pick on, so Manoah is seemingly in an amazing spot to produce. I’m going to target over his strikeout total, on him to record a win and perhaps some total outs props.

ROCKIES SP KYLE FREELAND (4-5, 4.31 ERA)

Freeland just faced the Dodgers in his last start and earned a win with the following line: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 3 BB. This game will take place in Los Angeles and he’s had a lot of history against current Dodgers hitters. In 222 at-bats, he’s allowed a .205/.247/.351 slash line which is very solid especially because he’s pitched against them at Coors Field quite often.

As a ground ball pitcher (47.5% ground ball rate for his career), Freeland is always someone I’m hesitant to bet against because opposing hitters usually have an issue getting the ball up in the air against him. Despite that, this is the second time in less than a week that this Los Angeles lineup will see him, so that seemingly will benefit the Dodgers in this instance.