National League Central Odds: Is Now the Time to Bet the Reds?

Cincinnati may be primed for a summer push in the NL Central

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As we head into the dog days of the summer, one particularly interesting division going forward is the National League Central. 

How should you bet this division moving forward? Here are the full odds, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Milwaukee Brewers (+100)

The Brewers have pulled into a tie for the division lead on the backs of their pitching. Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta have all been stellar this season, with the starting pitching staff as a whole posting a top six WAR. 

With Josh Hader coming out of the bulpen, the team has been able to steady the ship despite injuries to Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Kolten Wong during the course of the season.

The Brewers are still counting on Yelich to get going, their biggest bat in the lineup, whose back injury has hindered his power. He only has three home runs this season, but has made up for a .409 on-base percentage. 

FanGraphs projects the Brewers to win the division by two games, finishing with a run differential of 8.

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Chicago Cubs (+250) 

Many were expecting the Cubs to be sellers at the Trade Deadline with several key veterans on expiring contracts such as Kris Bryant, Javy Baez, and Anthony Rizzo. 

However, behind high level play from the aforementioned trio and a lockdown bullpen, the Cubs are tied for the division lead as of this writing. 

The club has the best bullpen ERA, paced by the resurgent Craig Kimbrel, who has a .66 ERA and has cut his WHIP down by more than half from the prior two seasons. 

Although, it may not be as good as it seems. Chicago is hitting at potentially unsustainable levels. They are hitting .232 as a team, 21st in the league, but have hit the fifth most home runs.

I’m not confident the Cubs can keep this pace up with a starting pitching staff that has the fifth lowest WAR, per FanGraphs. If their offense takes a slight step back, the Cubs may be primed to go on a big skid. No starter that has tossed more than 40 innings has an ERA sub 4 and FIP that matches the eye test.

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Cardinals (+300)

The Cardinals, like the Brewers, have been crushed by injuries. Ace Jack Flaherty and key starter Miles Mikolas are out until August as well as flame throwing reliever Jordan Hicks.

With a beaten down pitching staff, the Cardinals have struggled to keep up on the offensive end despite strong seasons from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, posting a -28 run differential this season. 

This price is too short given the issues facing St. Louis in the coming weeks. The Cards are four off the division lead and that lead can widen as the injuries continue to mount.

Wait and see where the Cards are in a few weeks and get longer odds if they are still within striking distance. 

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Reds (+1200)

The fact that the Reds are three games out of the division lead yet are 12-1 make them an intriguing bet to open up an NL Central betting portfolio. 

Cincinnati’s bats have kept them in the heat of the divisional race, posting the sixth best wRC+ and bottom five strikeout rate. By being disciplined at the plate and getting runners in scoring position, the Reds have been able to win some high scoring affairs. 

However, the pitching staff has been an anchor to their postseason hopes. The bullpen has the highest ERA in baseball after trading pitcher Raisel Iglesisas this offseason. Further, after letting Trevor Bauer walk in free agency, Luis Castillo has failed to reclaim his 2019 All Star status thus far.

Could there be better times on the horizon? Castillo might be starting to round into form. While he is still leading the MLB in runs allowed, he is pitching a sub 2 ERA over his last three starts. 

The bullpen may be a concern, but this is also a team that plays in one of the most hitter friendly stadiums in Great American Ball Park. If the offense keeps it up, with Jesse Winker and Nicholas Castellanos playing at an All Star level, they can offset some pitching concerns.

Only three behind the Brewers and Cubs with neither primed to run away with the NL Central, a flier on the Reds to win the division is a strong bet right now.