MLB Value Bets: June 12, 2019

Where to find value on tonight’s MLB slate

Tonight’s MLB slate is a tricky one in terms of finding value, but the BetQL models have identified two games that stand out against the run line.

The Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in the rubber match of their 3-game series tonight as slight underdogs. The Diamondbacks have flown under the national radar this season, but you shouldn’t be sleeping on their offense this year despite the amount of turnover that they saw in the offseason.

The Atlanta Braves will be going for the series sweep against the Pirates and will have their young stud pitcher, Mike Soroka, on the mound. Atlanta is the largest favorite on the slate but you can still back them at a great value against the run line.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies

Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly vs. Zach Efflin
Money Line: ARI +125, PHI -145
Run Line: ARI +1.5 (-170), PHI -1.5 (+145)
Total: O/U 9 Runs

The Diamondbacks and Phillies have split their current series 1-game apiece and will play the deciding game tonight in Philadelphia. The pitching matchup in this game is pretty even between Merrill Kelly and Zach Efflin. Both pitchers are inconsistent, but it has been Kelly who has been the better pitcher of late, allowing only 2 earned runs over 14 ⅔ innings of work in his last two starts.

Going into this season the Diamondbacks were projected to have one of the weaker offenses in the National League, but that hasn’t been the case as they lead the NL in runs scored with 359. The BetQL models see value on Arizona both on the money line and against the run line, but it’s the run line that is standing out at -170 odds. Arizona is a very impressive 21-12 against the spread on the road this season. Compare that to Philadelphia’s mediocre 15-19 ATS home record and you have all the makings for a solid +EV run line bet.

BetQL Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line (-170)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves

Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller vs. Mike Soroka
Money Line: PIT +175, ATL -210
Run Line: PIT +1.5 (-110), ATL -1.5 (-110)
Total: O/U 9 Runs

The Braves are going for the 3-game sweep of the Pirates tonight and will have the added benefit of having Mike Soroka on the mound. Soroka is having a breakout season for Atlanta this season, and he looks like the type of true ace that this Braves team have been missing since the days of Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine. The young righty is 7-1 on the year with a microscopic ERA of 1.38 in 65.1 innings pitched this season and is a legitimate dark horse pick for the NL Cy Young.

The Braves are the largest favorites on the slate tonight at -210 on the money line and it’s no surprise that the BetQL models don’t see much value in taking them at that inflated number, regardless of who is on the mound. However, their -110 odds against the run line is a great value and takes full advantage of Pittsburgh’s recent struggles on the road. The Pirates are 1-7 straight up and ATS over their last 8 road games, and have coughed up an almost unbelievable 61 runs in those games. They will turn to rookie starter Mitch Keller, who will be making his 2nd career start. Keller was lit up for 6 earned runs in only 4 innings in his first start at the Major League level, and a road game against a powerful Atlanta lineup is not a great spot for him to turn things around.

BetQL Pick: Atlanta Braves Run Line (-110)

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