MLB Simulation Data: Back These 3 Futures For 2023

Our model simulated every MLB game 10,000 times and these three particular bets stick out as amazing values

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MLB Simulation Model Projections For 2023 Regular Season

BetQL's MLB Simulation Model simulated every regular season game 10,000 times and identified three distinct futures bets that have a ton of value for the upcoming 2023 season! Current BetQL users can see the three best bets below by scrolling down (if logged in) or logging in below. If you don't have a BetQL account yet, all you need to do is sign up completely free below! All three of these projections may surprise you...

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MLB Simulation Model Projections For 2023 Regular Season

BetQL's MLB Simulation Model simulated every regular season game 10,000 times and identified three distinct futures bets that have a ton of value for the upcoming 2023 season! Current BetQL users can see the three best bets below by scrolling down (if logged in) or logging in below. If you don't have a BetQL account yet, all you need to do is sign up completely free below! All three of these projections may surprise you...

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Buy Low On The San Francisco Giants

At BetMGM, you can bet over 80.5 regular season wins for the Giants at -110 odds right now. Per BetQL’s simulation of every MLB game 10,000 times, we’re projecting San Francisco to win 91 games and blow that number out of the water. Also, BetRivers is giving the Giants +220 odds to make the playoffs and BetQL is giving them a 66.95% chance, -202 implied odds. Therefore, there’s a lot of value here.

San Francisco’s pitching staff has a lot of upside. The projected starting rotation of Logan Webb, Sean Manaea, Alex Cobb, Ross Stripling and Alex Wood is solid. Twins Taylor and Tyler Rogers should solidify the back-end of the bullpen before closer Camilo Doval. Others like John Brebbia, Scott Alexander and Luke Jackson make up a revitalized pen and should be a Top 10 unit.

Offensively, longtime Giant Brandon Crawford will man shortstop and will be surrounded by a number of interesting options including young catcher Joey Bart, the platoon of J.D. Davis and LaMonte Wade at first base, Thairo Estrada at second, David Villar or Wilmer Flores at third, Michael Conforto in left field, Mike Yastrzemski in center, Mitch Haniger in right and Joc Pederson at DH. Since this year’s schedule is more balanced, San Francisco should be able to avoid the Dodgers and Padres more than usual, which should play into their favor overall.

After shocking the baseball community by going 107-55 in 2021, Gabe Kapler’s team went 81-81 last year, but is poised to improve on that this season. Keep in mind that Kapler is an analytics guy, so that's another plus!

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Bet Guardians To Win AL Central Division

At PointsBet, you can get +135 odds (42.55% implied probability) on the Guardians to win the American League Central Division. Per our simulation, Cleveland has a 54.71% chance (-121 implied odds) to win the division, so plus-money is a nice bargain.

Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac will make up the starting rotation like they did last season while setup man James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase will return as one of the most electric back-end relief duos in the game. Overall, it will be interesting to see how much another offseason of preparation and work did for this young starting rotation, but this group should be a force.

I’m very high on this Guardians offense this year, too. Switch-hitting first baseman Josh Bell was added to a lineup that consists of All-Stars Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez, on-base wizard Steven Kwan, power-hitting catcher Mike Zunino, speedsters Amed Rosario and Myles Straw, power-hitting lefty Josh Naylor and right fielder Oscar Gonzalez. Terry Francona has a lot of options with this lineup and it should be one of the most productive in Major League baseball.

Cleveland is coming off a 92-70 regular season which ended in a 3-2 loss to the Yankees in the ALDS. Under Terry Francona, the Guardians have won the AL Central in four of the last seven seasons and finished second in the other three.

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Bet White Sox To Miss MLB Playoffs 

At BetMGM, you can get -134 odds (57.26% implied probability) on the White Sox to not make the playoffs. The simulation is giving Chicago a 66.14% chance, -195 implied odds, to miss the playoffs, so there’s some solid value present.

Chicago’s starting rotation will consist of Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Mike Clevinger and Michael Kopech. Cease was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year and this group has a ton of upside, but has also been plagued with a great deal of inconsistency outside of Cease. Closer Liam Hendricks is undergoing cancer treatment and is without a timetable to return, so Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer, Reynaldo Lopez, Joe Kelly, and Jake Diekman should be in line for save opportunities in an uncertain bullpen for new manager Pedro Grifol.

The big news on the offensive end this offseason was former MVP Jose Abreu’s departure. Andrew Benintendi was the team’s big signing in the offseason and he will join a familiar-looking lineup that consists of Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Andrew Vaughn, Elvis Andrus and most likely Oscar Colas. While this group has a ton of potential, this team ranked 19th in runs scored last season and dealt with numerous injuries. Overall, we’re projecting this squad to win 81 games and miss the postseason, exactly what they did last season.

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