How Sharps are Betting Tonight’s MLB Games: June 11, 2019
Reds, Braves, and Orioles drawing serious attention
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Trevor Bauer
Money Line: Reds +110, Indians -130
Run Line: Reds +1.5 (-190), Indians -1.5 (+160)
Total Runs: Over 8.5 (-105), Under 8.5 (-115)
The game that is garnering the most attention from sharp money in the money line market is the Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians matchup. While the public ticket percentage is fairly even with the Indians seeing a slight 52% edge, sharp money has tilted the total money percentage heavily in favor of the Reds who come in as +110 underdogs.
Cincinnati will be throwing their ace, Luis Castillo, against Trevor Bauer, who has really struggled over his last 5 starts. While Bauer has maintained a solid strikeout rate, he has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 8 starts and has failed to win a game since April 30th against the Marlins.
The Reds have not been a good team on the road this season, going only 10-16 and they have averaged only 2 runs per game over their last 4 games away from home. The BetQL models are also giving a slight edge to the Reds in this spot so sharp money may be onto something with a hot Castillo taking on the slumping Bauer.
Pro Money Advantage: 35% Cincinnati Reds ML
Starting Pitchers: Chris Archer vs. Mike Foltynewicz
Money Line: Pirates +130, Braves -150
Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-150), Braves -1.5 (+130)
Total Runs: Over 10 (-105), Under 10 (-115)
The Braves and Pirates are meeting in their 2nd 3-game series in as many weeks and the scheduling worked out in such a way that each team will be facing the same starting pitching matchups in this series in Atlanta as they did last week in Pittsburgh.
Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz has failed to back up his All-Star campaign from last season and has really struggled to get much of anything going this year. The Pirates were able to plate 3 runs against Foltynewicz last week in Pittsburgh in 6 innings of work, and that doesn’t bode well for tonight’s matchup given his massive 7.18 ERA at home in 2019.
With that being said, sharp bettors are backing the Braves fairly heavily in this game, which has resulted in a 33% Pro Money Advantage towards Atlanta with 87% of total money coming in on them as -150 home favorites.
Atlanta have been playing some nice baseball as a team and are 6-2 straight up over their last 8 games, with their only two loses coming to this Pirates team. Pittsburgh meanwhile, have been atrocious on the road lately, winning only 1 of their last 7 games away from PNC Park after starting the season an unsustainable 15-8 on the road.
Pro Money Advantage: 33% Atlanta Braves ML
Starting Pitchers: Trent Thornton vs. John Means
Money Line: Blue Jays -120, Orioles +100
Run Line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+140), Orioles +1.5 (-165)
Total Runs: Over 9 (+100), Under 9 (-120)
Sharp bettors favorite bet of the entire slate ironically comes in a matchup between two of the worst teams in baseball between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are seeing a massive 97% of total money on them to cover the run line as underdogs at -165 odds.
Baltimore will enjoy a significant edge in terms of starting pitcher with John Means on the mound. Means has been one of the few bright spots for the Orioles this season. The 26-year-old has posted an ERA of only 2.64 in 60.2 innings of work to go alongside a solid 7.29 K/9 and 2.39 BB/9.
While Baltimore has clearly been one of the worst teams in all of baseball this season, they have been rewarding run line bettors over the last week, going a perfect 5-0 ATS over their last 5 games -- all as underdogs. At the same time, the Blue Jays have been poor as favorites this season, going 4-9 ATS overall and 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games as closing line favorites.
This may not be the most intriguing game from a neutral viewing perspective, but it certainly appears that there is value that sharp bettors are looking to exploit on the Orioles in this spot.
Pro Money Advantage: 50% Baltimore Orioles RL
*Odds, lines, and sharp data are subject to change. Check the BetQL web and mobile apps for the most up to date lines.
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