Inside A Winning 5-Star MLB O/U Bet
A 12-run total outside of Coors Field driven up by heavy sharp action? Thanks, but no thanks.
- In today’s day and age, it’s somewhat rare to see a double-digit MLB run total outside of Coors Field. An 11-run total is even more rare and a 12-run total is almost unheard of when playing at normal altitudes.
- On Sunday, starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood and the Chicago Cubs welcomed Freddy Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers to Wrigley Field. The game opened with an 11.5-run total (the highest on the slate) and based on heavy sharp action, got up to 12 runs, where it closed.
- Per BetQL’s MLB Sharp Picks Dashboard, a whopping 91% of total money was wagered on the OVER, while 61% of total tickets were, resulting in a 30% Pro Money Advantage.
- Our model labeled UNDER the 12-run total as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ bet. We had the total at 10.5 runs, a 1.5-run difference from the consensus, and also labeled the Cubs as a -113 favorite to win (⭐⭐ value). Both of those outcomes won, since Chicago took down Milwaukee 9-1. Let's get into the projection below.
Cubs 9, Brewers 1
As you might imagine, this contest was decided by the quality of starting pitching on both sides. On our game page, we noted that if Chatwood had a quality start, Chicago had a 77% chance to win, based on 10,000 simulations that we ran. He ended up having a remarkable season debut, allowing just one earned run while striking out eight over 6.0 innings of three-hit ball.
We also noted that Peralta had a 19% chance of having a quality start. He didn’t have a very efficient or effective outing, allowing three hits, four earned runs and two walks while striking out two over 3.0 innings. Milwaukee reliever Justin Grimm imploded in the bottom of the eighth when he gave up three earned runs, which gave the OVER some hope, but for the overwhelming majority of the game, this bet was in the bag.
This is the perfect example of why having access to a BetQL premium subscription matters. When the total was at 11.5 (and our projection was 10.5), we still labeled the UNDER as a ⭐⭐⭐ bet. However, when heavy sharp action drove up the consensus total, the UNDER became a max-value bet based on the difference between that and our projection.
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How Best Bets Are Identified
Our model projects team performance and takes into account player performance, matchups, weather and injuries. From there, we set our own line, compare it with Vegas and assign a star rating to each spread, moneyline and over/under bet.
The team ratings use a strategic combination of historical team results, the current matchup (including anticipated starters) and the projected outcome. Team ratings are dynamic and will update based on major player injury news. The team’s offensive rating is the core piece and carries the most weight. The defensive rating as well as home field advantage are each significant factors. Other factors (weather, injuries, narratives, etc.) are taken into consideration and applied where appropriate.
Why Our Best Bets Change
There are a number of factors that could alter a star rating. Speculation around injuries, weather, narratives, etc. oftentimes move the line throughout the day/week leading up to a game and, since our evaluation of the matchup is relative to the sportsbook, will impact the star rating. Keep in mind that movement often revolves around the sportsbook looking to hedge against significant loss. Fortunately, our model is deaf to the noise, so you get consistent winners.
Why Accessing Our Best Bets Matters
Generally speaking, 3-star bets (and better) are recommended for the average user. A more aggressive bettor can bet 2-star games, while a more conservative bettor should stick to 4 and 5-star bets. Additionally, you are able to scale the wager based on star rating. For example, if you are aggressively betting all bets rated 2-stars and above, we recommend that you bet a larger percentage of your bankroll on a 5-star bet than a 2-star bet.
For more on our best bets, see our mobile app video tutorial below: