MLB Futures: Teams to Sell for Division, League, and World Series

With two weeks of the 2021 MLB season in the books, bettors have a tremendous amount of data and statistics to analyze when reevaluating the MLB Futures odds. Some teams have lived up to their lofty expectations early on, while others look more like pretenders than contenders. Some appear to be as good an investment as they did in the preseason, and others have skyrocketed in value thanks to a torrid pace out of the gates.

At BetQL, we are constantly contemplating the best odds on every sportsbook, whether it’s for today, tomorrow, or six months from now. We pinpoint not just the best current bets, but also wisest investment opportunities on the futures boards. If there’s money to be made, we want to help you make it. And if we can help save you from wasting your money by deterring you from poor bets, we will do that as well.  

Let’s protect your hard-earned cash, and dive into our teams to sell in the MLB Futures market. Records and stats as of Wednesday, April 15.

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Los Angeles Dodgers, 9-2 (first in NL West)

Odds to Win World Series: +350

Odds to Win National League: +175

Odds to Win NL West: -500

Look, the Dodgers are great once again—nobody’s disputing that fact. They have the best team batting average in the majors (.284), and they rank second in RBI (55) and OPS (.847). LA also ranks third in the MLB in both staff ERA (2.93) and WHIP (0.95). But I’m not buying the reigning World Series champs’ chances to repeat, and I’m not even buying their -500 odds to win the NL West.

In case anyone has been living under a rock, the Padres went from very good last season to great this season. They acquired the NL Cy Young winner, Yu Darvish, and added Blake Snell to their rotation. They just allowed four or fewer runs in 10 straight games, and they are firing on all cylinders despite a short-term shoulder injury to superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis, Jr.

Don’t get it twisted—I’m not declaring San Diego a lock to win the NL West by any means. I’m just saying that Los Angeles is also not a lock. A -500 prop on a Futures board should be an absolute sure thing for you to even consider betting it, like Leonardo DiCaprio was in the Best Actor category the year he starred in “The Revenant” (humble brag: yeah, I made that bet).

The NL West has a chance to once again become one of the most competitive divisions in the MLB, and for that reason taking the Dodgers -500 offers zero value. It’s an even bigger sucker’s bet to take the Dodgers to win the NLCS at +175, or to repeat as champs at +350. Too many things can go wrong in the course of six months—don’t bet a Future with such poor value.

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Tampa Bay Rays, 5-6 (tied with 4 teams 2.5 games behind Boston)

Odds to Win World Series: +2500

Odds to Win National League: +850

Odds to Win AL East: +700

It may seem unoriginal, but I also hate the odds for the other squad from last year’s World Series. Tampa Bay appears to have taken a step back offensively, which is not surprising considering it rode rookie Randy Arozarena practically all the way through the 2020 postseason.

Do we really expect the Rays to duplicate their magnificent three-month stretch of pitching last summer? They seemed like the ultimate COVID-summer Cinderella story. Already this season, we have seen their staff ERA inflate up to 4.88 (22nd in MLB). Their staff WHIP: 1.33 (17th). I’m not buying their chances at even winning the division this time around. 

Boston has been swinging some strong bats early on this season, and the Yankees are once again well-equipped for another run at the pennant. And don’t forget about the Blue Jays, who have one of the most promising young offenses in baseball, as well as an underrated pitching staff. Simply put, there’s too much competition in the crowded AL East to bet on a small-ball club (and small-market organization) to emerge out of the pack again.

The 2020 MLB World Series was fantastic, and the Rays were one of the sports stories of the year. But you would have to be out of your mind to think this organization can repeat such an unlikely run to the biggest stage in the sport.

Philadelphia Phillies

Odds to Win World Series: +4000

Odds to Win National League: +2000

Odds to Win NL East: +375

The Phillies may feel like a good value bet. But in reality, they are just a good way to throw away money. Their lineup and rotation both pale in comparison to the division-rival Braves and Mets, and they are already struggling to stay above .500.

Philly had a prime opportunity to take an early commanding lead of the division this season. Atlanta scuffled out of the gate (NLCS hangover, perhaps?), the Nationals battled COVID-19 and a rigorous early schedule, and the Mets played only seven games in two weeks due to weather and COVID-ridden opponents. But at 6-5, the Phillies have already been passed by in the standings by New York, which has won four of its seven contests. 

Philadelphia ranks in the middle of the pack in staff ERA (3.95) and WHIP (1.28), and its offense looks even more troubling. The Phillies sit 26th in both runs scored (41) and RBI (38), and tied for 23rd with 10 home runs. I wouldn’t bet on this offense to take the City of Brotherly Love to the promised land, even if I was betting with your money.

Boston Red Sox, 7-3 (first in the AL East)

Odds to Win World Series: +4000

Odds to Win National League: +2300

Odds to Win AL East: +750 

Take it from a native Masshole… not even the Fenway Faithful believe in the Red Sox’s chances to remain atop the AL East long-term. They may be swinging hot bats in April, but they are a young squad with far too many question marks.  

The biggest issue with Boston continues to be starting pitching. Eduardo Rodriguez and Nate Eovaldi can never seem to stay healthy for a full season. Chris Sale is recovering from his September Tommy John surgery. Garrett Richards has won eight games since 2016. Nick Pivetta has a career ERA of 5.35 and career WHIP of 1.431. Martín Pérez recently joined the 1,100 lifetime hits allowed club, and will soon reach 600 career earned runs.

Sorry to get cheeky—you get my point. Boston may have enough pop to help the AL East remain one of the more competitive divisions, but in my estimation the Sox still serve as the squad with the worst shot to win it. There’s just too little room for error with opposing offenses like the young sluggers of Toronto and the Bronx Bombers. Don’t buy in on Boston’s hot start just because their odds look like appealing payout potentials.