MLB Preview and Best Bets: June 13, 2019

Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins

Starting Pitchers: Yusei Kikuchi vs. Michael Pineda
Money Line: Mariners +150, Twins -180
Spread: Mariners +1.5 (-125), Twins -1.5 (+105)
Total Runs: Over 10.5 (-105), Under 10.5 (-115)

The Mariners will send their 27-year-old rookie out to face a vicious Minnesota offense. Yusei Kikuchi, from Japan, has had a rough go of late. He has allowed 16 runs over his last three outings (10 innings), and allowed 29 hits, including six homers over that span. The Seattle offense has been crushing the ball all of June, launching 26 homers in 11 games, but it still doesn’t feel like enough to invest in Kikuchi. Be weary.

Michael Pineda was once considered to have a ceiling as high as ace quality. I understand the health issues that he has dealt with over his career, but his performance has been terrible. In 12 starts this season, Pineda has allowed 38 runs over 64 innings, equating to a 5.34 ERA. He has allowed three runs in six straight outings, lowering his ERA from 6.21 at the end of April. Pineda earned a win against the Mariners four outings ago, but he still allowed three solo home runs to Edwin Encarnacion, Kyle Seager, and Mallex Smith in the contest. In fact, Pineda has allowed a whopping 14 homers this season. The Twins have provided Pineda with 5.14 runs per game, which explains their 6-6 record with him on the mound. The over is the most certain bet to make.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers: Zack Greinke vs. Erick Fedde
Money Line: Diamondbacks -125, Nationals +105
Spread: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+135), Nationals +1.5 (-160)
Total Runs: Over 9 (+100), Under 9 (-120)

Erick Fedde will make his fifth start of the season for Washington tonight against the Diamondbacks. It appears that he’s been throwing well when you look at his 2.7 ERA over four starts, but that doesn’t quite tell the full story. Fedde has been a bit lucky lately. His WHIP is high at 1.3 and his BABIP is .293 in his starts this season. He has pitched to contact in his starts, striking out just 13 over 20 innings. Expect this to be a wake up call for the young pitcher, as the Arizona offense has been scoring runs in bunches (41 over their last six games). Eduardo Escobar leads the way with 17 homers and 55 RBI this season.

The Diamondbacks send ace Zack Greinke out to make start number 15 on the season. Greinke has remained a pure ace even with the reduced fastball velocity that we have seen from him over the years. His 3.20 and 3.21 ERA’s over the past two seasons have been exactly what Arizona paid for. He’s thriving early in 2019, going 7-2 with a minuscule 2.87 ERA. The efficient righty has allowed more than three runs just twice, and one of those was on opening day. To make things even more attractive, Greinke allowed just one run off four hits over seven innings in his lone appearance against Washington last season. Arizona is an easy choice with Greinke leading the way. The Diamondbacks have won six of their last seven games.

Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox

Starting Pitchers: Adrian Sampson vs. David Price
Money Line: Rangers +190, Red Sox -235
Spread: Rangers +1.5 (-105), Red Sox -1.5 (-115)
Total Runs: Over 9 (-115), Under 9 (-105)

The Red Sox have lost five of their last seven contests. Their lone win in that span came during David Price’s last outing. The slim lefty has been terrific for Boston lately. He allowed four runs back-to-back to start the season and since has allowed three runs just once. His 2.7 ERA and 1.05 WHIP through 60 innings has been dominant. The problem is that Texas has killer stats against Price. Elvis Andrus is 8/12, Asdrubal Cabrera is 6/9, Logan Forsythe is 6/19, Hunter Pence is 2/4, and Shin-Soo Choo is 8/17 with two homers against Price. The Boston offense hasn’t been awful by any means, just a bit more inconsistent than we’re used to after 2018. Their offense still ranks in the top five of most major categories in the AL.

Adrian Sampson is coming off his best start as a pro, going the distance and allowing just one run against Oakland. He was tremendous in his first complete game, lowering his season ERA to 3.72. The Oakland offense ranks in the middle of the pack overall in the AL, meaning that this Red Sox lineup should prove more difficult for Sampson. The Boston lineup has just nine at-bats against the Texas pitcher, but two homers to show for it off the bats of Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. The over feels like the safest bet to make today. Both pitchers are coming off dominant performances, but the record shows that they’ll struggle against these powerhouse offenses. The Texas offense has scored more runs than any other AL team in June.

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets

Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Jacob deGrom
Money Line: Cardinals +110, Mets -130
Spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-190), Mets -1.5 (+160)
Total Runs: Over 7 (-115), Under 7 (-105)

Jack Flaherty finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting after a spectacular 2018 season. He logged a 3.34 ERA after 28 starts, allowing just 108 hits over 151 innings and striking out 182. Those numbers haven’t quite been replicated to start 2019. Flaherty has a 4.08 ERA and has allowed 59 hits over 68.1 innings with12 homers. He hasn’t been missing as many bats this year, but he’s still dependable. His most recent outing was his worst in his last eight tries, lasting just 3.2 innings and allowing four runs to the Cubs, however it was his third time facing the Cubs this season. The Mets’ offense should be a little easier to handle, especially since they have never faced Flaherty. I like the under in this matchup.

Jacob deGrom has been one of the more unlucky pitchers in 2019, with the Mets offense providing him just 3.69 runs of support per game. This has led to a 3-6 record, something deGrom has gotten used to. The Cy Young Award winner has been mostly dominant this season, pitching to the tune of a 3.45 ERA over 13 starts with 94 K’s in 75.2 innings. He faced St. Louis once last season and he allowed one run over 5.2 innings and earned the win. Some of the St. Louis offense has had some bad showings against deGrom too (Matt Carpenter 3/17, Paul Goldschmidt 1/5, Marcell Ozuna 8/33). The Mets have won five of seven, so let’s ride this heater they're on with one the of best pitchers in the world on the mound.

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

Starting Pitchers: Matthew Boyd vs. Homer Bailey
Money Line: Tigers -125, Royals +105
Spread: Tigers -1.5 (+130), Royals +1.5 (-150)
Total Runs: Over 8.5 (-110), Under 8.5 (-110)

The impressive season of Matthew Boyd continues with his dominant 3.08 ERA over 14 starts. He’s one of eight pitchers to reach 100 K’s on the season (105 in 84.2 innings) and he has allowed more than three runs in a game just once all year. Boyd’s control has also been fantastic, totaling just 15 free passes. He picked up one of his five wins against Kansas City earlier this season, going seven innings, striking out nine, and allowing two runs. The Detroit offense has been the worst in the AL overall, but they’ve ticked their production up a tad in the month of June. If Boyd can avoid Whit Merrifield (12/28), then he should enjoy another fantastic outing.

Homer Bailey will toe the rubber in a match of the bottom dwellers. Both teams are struggling to gain an identity and are sure to end the season at the bottom of the AL. Bailey has seen his ERA grow from 4.83 to 5.9 over his past five starts. Detroit can’t hit, plain and simple. Miguel Cabrera continues to struggle and eat up a huge chunk of team salary. This is a trend we see in baseball, as players out of their prime are getting paid ridiculous amounts. Bailey has one of his most friendly matches of the season, and he was successful against them once this season, allowing two runs over six innings. Take the under with these struggling offenses. The two teams are 45-84 collectively in 2019.

New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

Starting Pitchers: J.A. Happ vs. Ivan Nova
Money Line: Yankees -190, White Sox +160
Spread: Yankees -1.5 (-120), White Sox +1.5 (+100)
Total Runs: Over 9.5 (-115), Under 9.5 (-105)

The New York Yankees foolishly paid J.A. Happ $17M this season after he had a successful run post trade deadline. The Yankees acquired him from Toronto and ‘Happy' rewarded them with a 7-0 record over 11 starts and a 2.69 ERA. Happ owns a 3.92 ERA over his lengthy career and is now 36 years old. He’s come back down to earth in an unforgiving ballpark, posting a 4.48 ERA over 13 starts. Happ’s last two starts have been dynamite, combining for two runs over 12 innings against Toronto and Boston and he has won three straight games. His walk totals are low, but the 16 homers he’s allowed proves his weak spot. Luckily, he faces a fairly poor White Sox offense today. Joan Moncada sat out with a tight upper back recently, so check his status before wagering. Tim Anderson (7/13 with a homer), Yonder Alonso (4/6 with a homer), and James McCann (5/16 with a homer) should feast off Happ and all make for interesting DFS plays.

Ivan Nova has been a joke in 2019. The man owns as many disastrous starts as he does quality outings, compiling a hideous 6.28 ERA. Teams are pummeling him, tallying 97 hits over 71.2 innings against Nova. The Yankees have scored 23 runs in their last three games, and are clicking a bit more with Didi Gregorius back in the mix. The Yankees have been terribly unfortunate this season with health, but they’re still posting solid offensive numbers despite the injuries. Definitely take the over.

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

Starting Pitchers: Matt Strahm vs. Jon Gray
Money Line: Padres +130, Rockies -150
Spread: Padres +1.5 (-140), Rockies -1.5 (+120)
Total Runs: Over 11.5 (-105), Under 11.5 (-115)

The Padres have decided to option Chris Paddack to the minors to work on his stuff. The rookie was off to a tremendous start and recently fell apart. They will send another inexperienced starter to the mound today in lefty Matt Strahm. San Diego is currently on a four game skid, largely due to their lackluster offense. Maybe Coors Field will provide them with a jolt.

Matt Strahm has been converted to a full-time starter after a few years in the bullpen and some spot starts. He coughed up seven runs off two homers in 4.1 innings against the Marlins in his last outing, making his ERA jump from 3.21 to 4.03. He’s 2-5 on the season, but the Padres have won five of his 11 starts. Strahm has given his club a chance almost every outing. This will be his first start in Denver, so there’s always a chance he gets popped.

Jon Gray is going for the Rockies. His 4.27 ERA is a bit better than a novice would think. Gray is unlucky enough to pitch in Colorado and have two of the best NL offenses in his division (Dodgers and Diamondbacks). The hard-throwing righty has faced the Padres twice this season. One outing resulted in dominance and a win, while the other finished with a team loss and a couple homers allowed. San Diego players have good numbers against Gray. Manny Machado is 4/13 with a homer, Will Myers is 12/31 with three homers, and Hunter Renfroe is 4/6 with three homers against him. This isn’t a bad time to bet on an underdog in San Diego at +130.

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers

Starting Pitchers: Jon Lester vs. Clayton Kershaw
Money Line: Cubs +165, Dodgers -195
Spread: Cubs +1.5 (-130), Dodgers -1.5 (+110)
Total Runs: Over 8 (-105), Under 8 (-115)

The Dodgers fear that Corey Seager has a significant hamstring injury that could sideline him for some time. I assume they’ll look to fill any long-term void at shortstop with players in house. It’s a big blow, but the Dodgers should be fine in the long run.

Clayton Kershaw gets dealt a tough matchup with the Cubs. The lefty has been great, logging a 3.0 ERA over 10 starts. He has allowed just 10 walks over 66.2 innings, showing off his typical pinpoint control. Shockingly, the Cubs have terrific numbers against the stellar ace. Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Daniel Descalso, and Carlos Gonzalez have home runs in their career off Kershaw. It’s a tough call with the Cubs’ pitcher getting beat up lately, but the Cubs’ payout is large at +165 on the money line.

Jon Lester has hit a rough patch and has become human after his early hot start, something he’s used to doing. His 1.16 ERA leaped to 3.56 in his last five starts. He was dealt some tough opponents, but things won’t get much easier this time around either. Seager and Bellinger have great numbers off Lester, but Seager won’t be available and Bellinger has been cold for the first time in 2019. However, the Dodgers are still a powerhouse offense and hit lefties well. The over is a must.

*Odds and Lines are subject to change. Check the BetQL web and mobile apps for the most up to date lines.