MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Thursday, May 19
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Bryan Zarpentine - May 19, 2022, 3:21pm EDTMLB Betting Playbook for Thursday
If baseball fans need a little bit of a breather, they’re going to get it on Thursday with just eight games on the schedule. Of course, sometimes baseball is more about quality than quantity. If you use BetQL, you should have no problem finding great value in Thursday’s games.
On that note, in the last week alone, BetQL has nailed 62% (124-76) of all its MLB picks rated ⭐⭐⭐ and higher for a total return of $2,343 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!
Odds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest MLB betting lines here: Latest MLB Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert MLB picks
MLB BEST BET
Astros -210 ML vs. Rangers ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Outside of perhaps the Yankees, the Astros have been the hottest team in baseball this month. Despite losing two of three against the Red Sox earlier this week, the Astros are still 13-4 in May, a stretch that includes an 11-game winning streak. That’s why the BetQL model is expecting Houston to bounce back on Thursday when the Astros open a four-game series against the Rangers. Oddsmakers list the Astros at -210, but the BetQL model is taking things even further, listing Houston at -277 with a nearly 74% chance of winning.
Not only does the Houston lineup boast a ton of power, but the Rangers are sending Glenn Otto and his 6.38 ERA to face the Astros. That makes it hard to believe that the Rangers can keep the Astros under wraps in this game. To be fair, Texas has won four in a row and is 10-5 in May after sweeping the Angels earlier this week. But the Astros are still the better team on paper and are 9-4 at home this season, so this looks like a win from Houston’s perspective.
TOP PLAYER PROPS
D-backs' Zac Gallen 7+ Ks (+150 at FanDuel)
Gallen is averaging a little more than one strikeout per inning, and today he faces the Cubs, who have a 24.7 K%, one of the highest marks in the league. He's gone at least six innings in four straight starts, so you could take 6+ Ks at -136 to play it safe. However, considering that Gallen just fanned nine Cubs over six innings in his last start, I'm willing to go up to 7+ Ks for +150 odds. -- Brad Pinkerton
TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
The Yankees are going for the four-game sweep with the Orioles losing six in a row while averaging just 1.9 games per game over their last eight games. The only silver lining is that the last two games in this series were decided by just one run, which means the Yanks didn’t cover. As a result, the Orioles are now 21-17 ATS this year and 11-5 ATS as a home underdog.
This will be the rubber match of a three-game series with the first two games of the series both finishing 3-0. At home, the Phillies should feel good with Kyle Gibson, who is 9-0 over the last two years when pitching at home against a team with a winning record. Philly is also 5-2 in Gibson’s starts this year.
A rainout on Wednesday will force the two Ohio teams to finish their two-game series on Thursday afternoon. While the Reds eked out an extra-innings win on Tuesday, giving them seven wins in their last 11 games, their bullpen ERA of 4.97 is the second-worst in the majors. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 27-12 over the last two years against teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.70 or higher.
The Cardinals need a win to salvage a split of this four-game series. However, the Mets are 21-7 this year when facing a right-handed starter. That’s the third-best winning percentage in the majors against righties. The Mets are also 5-2 when Chris Bassitt starts, including a win over the Cardinals in which he allowed just two hits over six scoreless innings.
A Kansas City win on Wednesday has set up the rubber match of a five-game series on Thursday afternoon. Those four games have averaged just 5.5 total runs per game. That means Kansas City’s last 10 games against AL Central rivals have hit the under.
It’s hard to decide what’s more concerning between Seattle’s 8-14 road record this season or Boston’s 6-10 record at home. While the Mariners bring a little momentum to Fenway after beating the Blue Jays on Wednesday, they’ve also lost six in a row when coming off a win. Seattle hasn’t won back-to-back games since April 24.
Last weekend, the Cubs took two of three games against the Diamondbacks in the desert. Those losses on Saturday and Sunday plus getting swept in a four-game series across three days by the Dodgers have given Arizona a six-game losing streak. On the other hand, the Cubs are just 6-12 at home this season despite taking two of three from the Pirates at Wrigley earlier this week.
To their credit, the Rangers have gotten their act together, going 10-5 in May and sweeping the Angels this week. However, the Astros aren’t far removed from an 11-game winning streak. They are also 9-2 SU this season when favored at home.
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BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!
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