MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Friday, May 13
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Bryan Zarpentine - May 13, 2022, 2:45pm EDTMLB Betting Playbook for Friday
Don’t let the fact that it’s Friday the 13th worry you. This is bound to be a good day for baseball fans, as it kicks off an exciting weekend. Of the 15 games on Friday’s schedule, there are four intra-division matchups, four games in which both teams are .500 or better, and a rematch of the 2019 World Series. That’s a lot to digest, so let’s help you out with an overview of the best bets and noteworthy trends about all 15 games on Friday’s schedule.
One trend you should definitely know is that the BetQL model is 63-31 (67%) on all MLB picks rated ⭐⭐ and higher in the past three days for a total return of $2,063 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!
Odds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest MLB betting lines here: Latest MLB Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert MLB picks
MLB BEST BET
Yankees-White Sox Over 7.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
These teams combined for 22 runs on Thursday, so 7.5 runs doesn’t seem like a big number. Even with these teams combining to go 26-34-1 O/U this season, the BetQL model is giving five stars to the over in Friday’s game, projecting eight runs.
Despite Thursday’s offensive outburst by both teams, the fact that Gerrit Cole is starting for New York on Friday is helping to keep the run total down. Cole has been on fire lately, allowing just one run over his last 19 innings. But despite their injuries, the White Sox have to feel good about the state of their lineup. They’ve scored at least three runs in every game this month, averaging 4.5 runs per game in May. Also, Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson are a combined 7-for-13 against Cole, so they have hitters who can do some damage.
Likewise, the Yankees have surely hit their stride after scoring 15 runs on Thursday. That gives the Bronx Bombers 26 total runs over their last three games. Even though Vince Velasquez has been better in his last two starts, he’s had a couple of rough outings this year, which means a red-hot lineup could be a problem for him. If the Yankees can keep firing on all cylinders, they may not need much help from the White Sox to get this game over 7.5 runs.
TOP PLAYER PROPS
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Home Runs (+340)
Ohtani has six home runs already this season and I see a great chance he can get another one in this game against the A's. Especially since Daulton Jefferies will be on the mound for the A's tonight and he's 1-5 with a 5.22 ERA and he's given up three home runs and 18 total hits in his six starts this season.
Ohtani is also coming off of a game in which he hit a home run and I never doubt his ability to do anything. He has 33 total hits with 10 in his last seven games, so I see great value in him to hit a home run against the A's in this one. -- Lucy Burdge
TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
After the Reds won the series opener in Pittsburgh, 4-0, they continue to move in the right direction, winning five of their last seven games, including three of four against the Pirates. However, Pittsburgh has won eight straight home night games against the Reds that have followed a loss.
Miami has started the month of May 2-9, including a six-game losing streak. But they are 5-1 in games started by Pablo Lopez this year. On the other side, Corbin Burnes is rocking a 1.86 ERA, although the Brewers are just 2-4 in his starts, losing three in a row when he takes the mound despite Burnes allowing just three earned runs across 19.2 innings in those three starts.
Houston’s winning streak is up to 10 games heading into the team’s trip to Washington, where the Astros were 3-0 during the 2019 World Series. Not only is momentum favoring the Astros but the Nationals have the worst home record in the majors at 4-13. The Nats are also just 5-12 ATS at home this year.
In his last start, Max Scherzer took his first loss in a regular-season game in 343 days. It could be a while until he’s due for another loss. More importantly, the Mets are 5-1 when he takes the mound whereas the struggling Mariners are 1-5 when Marco Gonzales starts this season, not to mention Seattle is just 5-11 on the road.
The Blue Jays are 4-1 this year when Kevin Gausman starts. But the Rays are also 4-1 this year when Drew Rasmussen starts. Meanwhile, that Toronto has lost four in a row while the Rays have lost three of four. Something has to give there. The kicker is that the Blue Jays are just 5-16 ATS when favored this year with the Rays 6-1 ATS as the underdog.
It can be hard to figure out what will happen when two of the worst teams in the majors play each other. But the Orioles have won six of their last eight games and just won a series in St. Louis. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS when favored at home.
The Braves are starting to build a little momentum but are just 8-9 SU this year when favored at home. As for the Padres, they are coming off a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday but are 9-2 coming off a loss this season, winning seven straight games that have followed a loss. Oddly enough, the last time San Diego lost back-to-back games, both were against Atlanta.
MORE PICKS: BEST ODDS BOOSTS & JUICED PARLAYS
The month of May has been dramatically different for these two teams. While Texas is still four games under .500, the Rangers have gone 6-3 in May thus far. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are just 2-7 in May, dropping them nine games under .500 and putting them last in the AL East.
The Guardians are 6-3 in May but haven’t played in two days after COVID issues canceled their game on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Twins just got swept by the Astros, cooling them off considerably. However, Minnesota has won seven in a row against division rivals. The Twins are also 45-29 when trying to bounce back from a loss of four runs or more, so they should respond well to Thursday’s 5-0 loss to Houston.
The Yanks won a 15-7 shootout in the series opener on Thursday. Under Aaron Boone, the Yankees are 86-65 (.570) after winning a game by at least four runs. Thursday’s win was also the fourth in a row for the Yankees, who are 53-37 (.589) under Boone when winning four or more straight games.
The Cardinals just lost a home series to the Orioles, which can’t feel good, especially with the Giants coming to town. It’s also worth noting that San Francisco is 7-0 SU this season when favored on the road. The Giants were 28-14 as a road favorite last year, so this year’s success is no fluke.
The Rox have suffered four straight losses and dropped five of their last six games, scoring just 13 total runs in those games. They are now just one game over .500 but should benefit from returning home, where they are 11-5 this year. Meanwhile, the Royals are just 4-10 on the road this year.
Despite three straight wins, the A’s are still last in the AL West. For them, returning home this weekend may not be a good way to extend that winning streak, as Oakland is just 4-9 at home this year. Of course, the wild card in this game is that the Angels are sending 21-year-old Chase Silseth to the mound for his MLB debut. Silseth is coming straight from Double-A, where he had a 1.73 ERA in five starts. However, the Angels are 12-7 SU on the road this year and 6-2 SU when favored on the road.
The D-backs have turned things around this year with seven wins in their last nine games. They are also 20-12 ATS, which is the second-best ATS record in the majors. The only caveat is that this will only be Arizona’s fifth game this season as a favorite, going 2-2 SU in the first four.
The Phillies took the series opener on Thursday, meaning the Dodgers have lost three of their last four games. The Phillies are 4-1 when Kyle Gibson starts and 6-3 ATS and 5-4 SU as road underdogs.
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BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!
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