MLB Betting Guide (July 19, 2019)

Friday’s 15-game MLB slate features a slew of enticing over/unders and some intriguing pitching matchups. Here we go… 

Teams To Wager On

Philadelphia Phillies (50-47, -105) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (45-50) 7:05 pm ET

Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.54 ERA) vs. Jordan Lyles (5-6, 5.16 ERA)

Pick: Phillies

Analysis: Jordan Lyles was the star of the second half for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2018. However, he’s been a disaster since late May. He owns an unsightly 10.13 ERA over his last seven starts and the Pirates have won just once over that span. Lyles has allowed at least one long-ball over his last six outings. He collapsed for his shortest outing of 2019 last time out at Wrigley Field, allowing seven runs off four hits and four walks, accounting for just two outs in the contest. The Pirates offense has averaged three runs per game over their last six (losing five), with NL RBI leader Josh Bell going 3-for-20 with zero RBI over the stretch.

Jake Arrieta is well beyond his days of being a stud on the bump, but the Philadelphia Phillies have managed to show up for him lately by winning five of his last seven starts. Arrieta has yet to face the Pirates this season, but he shut them down in 2018 with ease. He went 2-0 and allowed two runs, seven hits, three walks and struck out 18 against Pittsburgh in 2018. Expect the Philadelphia offense continue giving Arrieta run support, facing a pitcher that has allowed 14 runs over his last two contests.

St. Louis Cardinals (49-46, +100) @ Cincinnati Reds (43-51) 7:10 pm ET

Adam Wainwright (6-7, 3.99 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (2-10, 4.82 ERA)

Pick: Cardinals

Analysis: Tyler Mahle’s been unlucky and awful all in one, going 2-10 with the Reds winning just four of his 18 starts. His ERA isn’t high enough to be losing quite this often. The Reds offense has helped him about as little as possible, averaging 3.18 runs of support per game in his starts. The young righty has been a complete mess over his last four outings, going 0-3 while allowing 16 runs over 19 1/3 innings. He has allowed a homer in 14 of 18 games. The St. Louis Cardinals touched him up for five runs over five innings in late April. Cincinnati has lost five of seven.

Adam Wainwright has been very efficient since the start of June, pitching to the sweet tune of a 2.48 ERA over his last six starts (36 1/3 innings). The veteran is in his 14th season with the redbirds and has been enjoying his best season since 2015. He has a batting average against him of just .211 with RISP. Wainwright allowed two runs over six innings in his last appearance in Cincinnati back in April. The Cincinnati roster is 3-for-21 against Wainwright, and they’ve been a cold offense of late. If you remove the 28 runs the Reds scored in a three game set in Colorado this month, they’d be left with just 33 runs over 10 games in July. The Cardinals are gaining momentum and have won five of their last six games.

Prop Bet To Make

Pick: Jordan Lyles Earned Runs Allowed - Over 2 1/2 (MyBookie)

Analysis: As mentioned above, Jordan Lyles has been a catastrophe of late. He has allowed a massive 33 runs over his last 29 1/3 innings pitched, including eight homers over his last six starts. This earned run line should hit with ease. May 17th was the last time that Lyles would have hit the under on a 2 1/2 run line.

Over/Unders

Colorado Rockies (46-50) @ New York Yankees (62-33) 7:05 pm ET

Kyle Freeland (2-6, 7.39 ERA) vs. J.A. Happ (7-5, 4.93 ERA)

Pick: Over 11

Analysis: J.A. Happ has been a complete dumpster fire for the New York Yankees this season. After signing a lucrative contract in the offseason (which many questioned), Happ has burned New York to the third-degree. He had an extremely low BABIP of .250 during his 11 games with the Yankees in 2018, which led to the overpay. The majority of his success has come against the Tampa Bay Rays (2.61 ERA) and Toronto Blue Jays (2.19 ERA) this season. The 20 round-trippers that Happ has given up over just 95 innings should give some perspective as to how bad things have been.

Kyle Freeland has probably been hit harder this season than he ever has in his life. The southpaw was demoted to the minors after an atrocious start through two months. He made six starts in the minors before returning, but it was out of pure desperation by the Colorado Rockies. Freeland racked up an 8.80 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over 29 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level. Once he was recalled, he promptly allowed five runs over four innings to the Cincinnati Reds. His ground ball percentage has fallen to 44.0, four percent lower than his brilliant 2018 season where he finished fourth in the NL in Cy Young Award voting. He has coughed up 16 homers in 63 1/3 innings (allowed 17 homers over 202 1/3 innings last season), which has completely bloated his ERA. It’s just not Freeland’s year.

Kansas City Royals (36-62) @ Cleveland Indians (55-40) 7:10 pm ET

Mike Montgomery (1-2, 5.67 ERA) vs. Shane Bieber (8-3, 3.49 ERA)

Pick: Under 9.5

Analysis: Shane Bieber has looked the part of an ace pitcher over his last six starts, compiling a 2.40 ERA and a 54:4 K:BB ratio. He has held opponents to one homer over the six games of brilliance. He appears to be one of the finest young pitchers in today’s game, and the Cleveland bullpen backs him up with a tremendously low 3.34 ERA, which ranks best in the AL. Bieber’s success is all the reason to take the under here.

Mike Montgomery will make his first appearance with the Royals since a recent trade sent catcher Martin Maldonado to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for the lefty. Montgomery will be granted another opportunity to start after struggling in the Cubs bullpen. The Cubs had Montgomery start 10 games and make 19 appearances from the bullpen last season. He was very handy as a starter, logging a 3.69 ERA over 97 2/3 innings. It was the relief appearances that he struggled with, totaling a 5.13 ERA over 26 1/3 innings. The Royals will attempt to regain that success, as the Cubs used him on the bullpen exclusively in 2019. For what it’s worth, the Indians are hitting .236 against southpaws this season.

Oakland Athletics (55-42) @ Minnesota Twins (59-36) 8:10 pm ET

Chris Bassitt (6-4, 3.98 ERA) vs. Jake Odorizzi (11-4, 3.06 ERA)

Pick: Over 10.5

Analysis: Chris Bassitt hasn’t been flashy for the Oakland Athletics this year, but he’s been consistent. The tall righty has allowed three runs or more in an outing nine out of 15 times. Bassitt has been even worse on the road with a 4.43 ERA over eight starts. He’s clearly more comfortable at home, but he will be backed by some solid run support from his red-hot offense. The A’s have scored 38 runs over their last five games and 88 runs over their last 13 games.

Jake Odorizzi has been knocked around over his last five times out, allowing multiple homers three times. The 17 runs he has surrendered over his last 23 2/3 innings has been embarrassing. Oakland shelled him just before the All-Star break for five runs off two homers over three innings. The Minnesota offense managed six runs in a win over Oakland yesterday. There seems to be a good amount of runs to go around in this match up. For more over/under bets, check out our MLB over/under page.

Bet Of The Day

Boston Red Sox (53-44) @ Baltimore Orioles (29-66) 7:05 pm ET

David Price (7-2, 3.16 ERA) vs. John Means (7-5, 2.94 ERA)

Pick: Under 10

Analysis: John Means is fresh off his worst outing of the season. He faced the Tampa Bay Rays in back to back outings and the Rays tagged him in the latter for six runs (three homers) over six innings. It seemed like a bit of a bad break for the Baltimore rookie, as he had been dominant all season long. Means has allowed two earned runs or less in 11 of 15 starts, including three earned runs or less in 13 of 15 outings. Means has had success against the Boston Red Sox this season and owns a 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over three starts against them.

David Price has been incredibly stingy in 2019, allowing two runs or less over 13 of 17 outings. Two of Price's starts that resulted in opponents scoring four runs were his first two outings of the season, just to give you a perspective on how great he has been. Price dominated the Orioles back in April, tossing seven shutout innings and allowing just three hits. The Orioles offense has managed a piddly 11 runs over the last three games and the Red Sox have scored 14 runs over their last three games.