MLB Betting Guide (August 18)

The Indians (-130) and Phillies (-110) look like solid bets, as do the Yankees/Indians under and Padres/Phillies over.

Teams to Wager On 

Indians (73-51) @ Yankees (83-42)

Clevinger (7-2, 3.34) vs Sabathia (5-6, 4.68)

1:05 pm ET

Pick: Indians -130

Mike Clevinger has had a strong 2019 season with an elite 1.13 WHIP and a 2.77 xFIP that suggest he is even better than what his counting numbers indicate. The third-year right-hander has allowed 11 earned runs over his previous 32.0 innings pitched and is coming off a rough home outing in which he allowed four earned runs over 4 2/3 innings pitched against the Boston Red Sox. 

Clevinger has used his mid-90s fastball to average 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings pitched and that should come in handy against a Yankees side with a 21.8 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in 2019.

Sabathia has had an up and down season and should have some extra motivation for this game as he was bounced from Saturday’s matchup after becoming vocally frustrated with home plate umpire Ben May. Sabathia is set to come off the IL on Sunday and hasn’t pitched since July 27th. 

Over his last five starts before that, Sabathia allowed 19 earned runs over 27 1/3 innings pitched and the veteran is a shell of his former self.

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Padres (56-65) @ Phillies (64-58)

Lucchesi (7-7, 4.25) vs Vargas (6-6, 4.03)

1:10 pm ET

Pick: Phillies -110

Padres lefty Joey Lucchesi has had a strong season for the Padres and boasts an above average 1.20 WHIP and a 4.23 xFIP. As solid as Lucchesi has been this season, the road has been his downfall, where he’s posted a 6.15 ERA and allowed 10 homers over 52 2/3 innings pitched away from Petco Park. 

Lucchesi has allowed 16 earned runs over his last 26 innings pitched with 12 of those runs coming in his previous three road starts. Lucchesi has struck out 8.9 per nine and has allowed 2.98 free passes and 1.20 dingers per nine as well. 

The Phillies acquired veteran lefty Jason Vargas from the New York Mets at the trade deadline and over his three starts with Philadelphia, Vargas has gone 0-1, allowing eight earned runs over 17 1/3 innings pitched. Vargas’ 5.44 xFIP suggests he has been lucky and regression could be headed his way at some point this season.

Philadelphia has gone 1-2 during the three Vargas starts and the southpaw is coming off a solid, five-hit, two earned run effort over 6.0 innings pitched in a 4-2 win over the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park. 

Over/Unders 

Indians (73-51) @ Yankees (83-42)

Clevinger (7-2, 3.34) vs Sabathia (5-6, 4.68)

1:05 pm ET

Pick: Under 10.5 

Two of the three games in this series exceeded the total and the two clubs have combined for 50 runs through those games.

Sabathia has allowed 2.39 home runs per nine innings pitched and that should bode well for Indians sluggers Carlos Santana, Franmil Reyes, Roberto Perez, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez. Santana and Ramirez have both been huge during this series. 

Cleveland is averaging eight runs per game against the Yankees this season with 17 dingers and a .344 OBP over 179 at-bats. It’s unclear whether Sabathia will be on a restricted pitch count, but it’s doubtful manager Aaron Boone is going to let him go too deep into the game. Since New York’s bullpen has been among the best in the AL this season, that could help this game stay under the total. 

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The Yankee bats boom against right-handed pitching and have boasted a .216 ISO with a MLB-leading 163 home runs against that handedness. However, Clevinger has limited power (allowed just 0.80 home runs per nine innings pitched) and his strikeout ability could create an issue for the Bronx Bombers. 

Padres (56-65) @ Phillies (64-58)

Lucchesi (7-7, 4.25) vs Vargas (6-6, 4.03)

1:10 pm ET

Pick: Over 10

Over the last five games, San Diego is averaging less than five runs per game, good for a 1-4 record and that matches their 4.91 runs per game they average away from Petco Park. San Diego has a 23.8 percent strikeout rate Vargas could possibly take advantage of, but the Padres’ .191 ISO and 42 bombs against lefties point to a baseball team that could put some runs on the board against Vargas on Sunday. 

Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe, and Wil Myers have all traditionally hit lefties well.

Lucchesi has had a tough time on the road and his 6.15 ERA isn’t a typo and has been a real problem in an otherwise solid season. The Phillies can certainly take advantage of this Sunday afternoon and their .197 ISO and 45 bombs against lefties suggests they can cause the youngster some issues. Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, and the red-hot Bryce Harper are three players who could go off in this matchup. 

Note: All advanced and batted ball statistics were found on FanGraphs, ESPN, and Baseball Savant. The advice above represents the writer's personal view and does not reflect or represent BetQL's stance or interest in any way.