MLB Play of the Day for Friday, April 16: Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

The Astros will look to respond off of a sweep to the Tigers with a better result in Seattle against the Mariners. 

The BetQL Model has a firm stance on this matchup between AL West foes. Keep reading to find out!

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Houston Astros (-115, 8) vs. Seattle Mariners - 10:10 PM EST

Houston is banged up right now, and it showed in three straight losses to Detroit. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez are all on the IL due to health and safety protocols. 

With that being said, the BetQL Model still likes the Astros, making them a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ play on Friday night. 

The value can be derived from Houston’s starting pitcher Jose Urquidy, who is due for some positive regression after two starts.

He has posted a 5.23 ERA through two starts, but also boasts a 2.66 FIP. Fielding Independent Pitching is focused on solely what the pitcher can control and takes out all other variables after the ball is in play. 

For reference, last year’s leader in the American League was Shane Bieber, who posted a 2.07 FIP. 

Simply put, things out of control for Urquidy have plagued him early in 2021. Expect that to even out over time.

For the Houston bats, seeing a lefty should help jumpstart a wounded offense. The Astros have crushed lefties this season, posting a Major League best .547 slugging percentages against southpaws. 

Seattle will send out left hander Yusei Kikuchi and will be backed by a poor Mariners bullpen. Expect Houston to put runs up in this one and for Urquidy to put together a strong start considering his advanced metrics are better than his ERA indicates. 

The BetQL Model makes the Astros -154 favorites in this matchup, expect them to grab a win in the opening game of this three-game set. 

Pick: Houston Astros -115