Reds LHP Mike Minor (1-4, 7.71 ERA)
If the 34-year-old southpaw’s first five starts are any indication, it’s going to be a struggle for him to compete in 2022. In 25.2 innings pitched, Minor has allowed 31 hits and 22 earned runs, including a whopping 10 home runs. In his last start against the Giants, he allowed eight hits and six earned runs, including three long-balls in 5.0 innings and couldn’t get anything working. The Braves have mashed left-handed pitching this year, have hit the third-most home runs against southpaw starters and have an excellent chance to shell Mr. Minor. I'll be heavily over Atlanta's team total.
Guardians RHP Aaron Civale (2-4, 7.20 ERA)
In 40.0 innings pitched this year, Civale has given up 51 hits and 32 earned runs. He will look to avenge an early-season loss to the Yankees on Friday night; he allowed seven hits and six earned runs in just 3.0 innings in a 10-2 defeat in that one. Unfortunately for Civale, he’ll have to face the best team (and best offense) in baseball and he’s allowed exactly six earned runs in half of his last six starts. That’s concerning form to say the least and this is another solid spot to back New York's team total, even though you might automatically already be doing that at this point.
Orioles RHP Spenser Watkins (1-1, 5.14 ERA)
Since the start of last season, Watkins has repeatedly proven that he’s not an MLB-caliber starter. In 89.2 innings at the Major League level, he’s managed a 6.93 ERA and 1.67 WHIP by surrendering 69 earned runs on 115 hits, including 19 home runs. I have repeatedly targeted whatever offense has the luxury of facing Watkins and will continue doing so. The Twins are one of these streaky offenses that has burned me at various points this year, but I'm not going to fade them in this spot. Give me over the Minnesota team total and I'll also likely have some exposure to alternate run lines (-2.5 runs, -3.5 runs, etc) for the Twins, Yankees and Braves.
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