Dan Karpuc: Twins -1.5 Runs vs. Orioles
BetQL is projecting this to be the most lopsided outcome on the board today, as Minnesota holds a 2.5-run advantage in the model with a 79.16% chance to win the game outright. I’m going to continue my personal tradition in fading Orioles starter Spenser Watkins (1-1, 5.14 ERA), who I featured as one of the three gas cans to bet against on today’s slate. Since the start of last season, Watkins has repeatedly proven that he’s not an MLB-caliber starter. In 89.2 innings at the Major League level, he’s managed a 6.93 ERA and 1.67 WHIP by surrendering 69 earned runs on 115 hits, including 19 home runs. Meanwhile Twins SP Joe Ryan (6-3, 3.20 ERA) is a quality starter and someone I trust to deliver a quality start for Minnesota in this matchup.
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Brad Pinkerton: Mets -195 vs. Rangers
The BetQL MLB model is red-hot right now, going 29-16 (65%) on all picks rated ⭐⭐⭐ and higher in the past three days for a total return of $805 on $100 bets. That includes a 5-1 (83%) mark on O/U picks ⭐⭐⭐ and higher. One of its three-star picks today is Mets -195, despite their three-game losing streak. New York is still an MLB-best 21-7 coming off a loss, and the Mets have the second-best home record in the majors at 24-12, so the model and I are expecting a bounce-back win tonight at Citi Field.
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