2022 Field Of Dreams Game Best Bets: Cubs vs. Reds

After the White Sox beat the Yankees in a classic 9-8 battle in last year’s Field of Dreams Game, the Cubs and Reds have a whole lot to live up to on Thursday. Chicago and New York combined for a whopping eight home runs last summer, but will more offensive explosions occur in this matchup? Scroll down to find out which team the model projects to emerge from the corn stalks with a win and if we should expect a high-scoring or low-scoring total.

Reds Outlook

Cincinnati is 44-66 on the year, which is pretty astounding since they began the season with a 3-22 record, one of the worst starts in MLB history. However, they enter this contest having just gotten swept by the Mets in a three-game set while getting outscored 21-5. Overall, their -107 run differential tells you all you need to know; this team is not good in any facet of the game, especially on the mound, where they’re sporting a terrible 5.00 team ERA, second-worst in baseball.

Nick Lodolo (3-3, 4.40 ERA) will get the start for the Reds. While he’s been a strikeout machine (58 punch-outs in 43.0 innings pitched), he’s also issued 20 walks, including 11 in his last four starts. That lack of command has prevented him from going deep into games and there have been some clear growing pains, as there are with most rookie hurlers. This will be his first matchup against the Cubs, who are slashing just .228/.298/.398 against left-handed pitching this season, but Chicago has hit 34 home runs against that handedness, tied for the 10th-best mark.

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Cubs Outlook

Chicago enters this game with a 45-65 record and are just 1.0 game ahead of the Reds in the NL Central standings right now. The Cubs took four out of the six games in their back-to-back three-game series against the Marlins and Nationals heading into this game, a semi hot streak for them, but on the year, they’ve also struggled on the mound. As a team, Chicago has a 4.34 ERA, which ranks 24th in the Major Leagues.

Make no mistake about it, veteran lefty Drew Smyly (4-6, 3.97 ERA) was dominant last time out, allowing five hits in 6.2 shutout innings in a 4-0 victory over Miami. However, his season-long stats leave a lot to be desired; in 65.2 innings pitched, he’s allowed 70 hits (11 HR) and has struck out 52. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher (120 fly ball outs, 92 ground ball outs), which is not great news since the ball easily carried out of this park last season.

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Cubs-Reds Prediction

What really stands out to me is the total in this game. I love the over. Last year’s game proved that this field will likely be a hitter-friendly destination until it’s remodeled and both pitchers don’t scare me one bit.

Lodolo’s lack of control should allow Chicago to get in solid run-scoring positions and to get in advantageous counts while Smyly’s inability to miss bats and status as a fly-ball pitcher could lead to some crooked numbers from Cincinnati’s lineup. Give me the over and I also think taking a shot on Aristedes Aquino to hit a home run in the player prop market makes a ton of sense (with pretty long odds). After all, he’s hit three home runs in just nine at-bats against Smyly in his career, but is hitting .182 with just three home runs in 38 games this season!

Overall, I expect this total to soar into double-digits, so I like it all the way up to over 9.5 if it gets there.

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