DraftKings MLB DFS Contrarian Picks (9/24/19)
Consider these options in Tuesday's MLB tournaments
- Jeff Hoffman ($4,800) faces an offense that has averaged two runs over their last five home contests.
- Kyle Lewis ($3,700) has posted a .429 ISO through 12 games.
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- Homer Bailey’s luck is bound to evaporate, making the Angels a solid contrarian option.
Jeff Hoffman ($4,800)
Jeff Hoffman hasn’t exactly been a gem this season, but he has been serviceable. The righty owns a 4.64 ERA over four starts this month and comes in as one of the most affordable arms of the slate.
Hoffman has held opponents to a reasonable 38.0 percent hard hit rate and is striking out lefties at a massive rate of 27.3 percent. He figures to see plenty of southpaw bats in the San Francisco Giants lineup and he should have more success away from Coors Field.
A start at Oracle Park makes all the difference for Hoffman and it’s against a struggling offense. The Giants have produced just 10 runs over their last five home games and just tallied nine runs over their last four road games. Chances are that Hoffman has an above-average outing.
Kyle Lewis ($3,700)
The Seattle Mariners called up their 2016 first-round pick two weeks ago and the outfielder has shown tons of promise. Kyle Lewis has collected at least one hit in 10 of his 12 professional games and has clobbered six long-balls while scoring and driving in 10.
Lewis’ 34.0 percent strikeout rate is alarming, but his .429 ISO and .442 wOBA are impressive. It’s a small sample size, but his 1.114 OPS is dazzling and has posted an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour or greater 54.2 percent of the time against righties. Facing Gerrit Cole is a very tough task, but sometimes the prospects with very little professional game film become challenging to get out. Lewis is a nice contrarian gamble at this cost and should come in at one or two percent ownership in tournaments.
Los Angeles Angels (Stack)
The Los Angeles Angels bats have shown signs of life, scoring 17 runs over their last three contests. The offense mustered a terrific 42.9 percent hard hit rate and 26.0 percent line drive rate over the three-game span and they draw a pitcher that has been high on his luck of late.
Homer Bailey’s 1.45 ERA over the month of September looks sexy, but his 4.01 SIERA tells a different story. Opposing bats have a dismal soft hit rate of 8.5 percent over the month, and Bailey’s .217 BABIP figures to regress to the mean.
With just one Angels hitter valued over $4,000 on DraftKings (Cole Calhoun), the Angels make for a value stack option against a pitcher that should come back down to earth.
Note: the advice above reflects the writer’s view and does not represent the stance or interest of BetQL or RotoQL in any way.