Corbin Burnes Is Off To An Historic Start For This Reason

40 strikeouts. 0 walks. 1 earned run.

It’s safe to say that Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes is off to a pretty solid start, huh? 

In fact, no pitcher has ever gotten off to a statistical start like this since 1893, when the rubber was set at 60 feet, 6 inches, per Elias Sports Bureau. 

Further, no pitcher since 1901 has had 40 strikeouts and no walks in a stretch of any four games at any point in a season, per MLB.com. 

Although he somehow has a loss (which must make Jacob deGrom smile), Burnes is 2-1 with a 0.37 ERA, 0.33 WHIP and has given up just 8 hits in 24 ⅓ innings pitched. Those numbers might be difficult to replicate in a video game.

Speaking of deGrom, Burnes’ NL Cy Young odds have climbed to +400 on BetMGM, right behind the Mets ace at +250. If you’re a first-time BetQL user and sign up for a new BetMGM account via our app, deposit the $10 minimum and place your first bet, we will hook you up with an annual BetQL VIP subscription ($149.99 value) within 24 hours! GET FREE ACCESS NOW!

All runners that have gotten on base against Burnes have been stranded (his one earned run came on a homer from Byron Buxton) and his 47.1% strikeout rate, .098 average against, 0.68 FIP, 1.22 xFIP and 1.08 SIERA are absolutely insane. His .171 BABIP suggests negative regression is on its way, but there’s one main reason to believe in Burnes’ overall NL Cy Young outlook. 

He has the most dominant cutter in Major League Baseball… by a wide margin. 

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Not only does he throw it a league-high 51% of the time, per FanGraphs, but opposing hitters have no idea how to hit it. While a cutter doesn’t have the same deceptive factor that a changeup does, it’s arguably the hardest pitch to get solid contact off of due to its late movement. 

Mariano Rivera was primarily a one-pitch Hall of Famer and that one pitch was a cutter. That's not a coincidence.

Burnes has attracted a 40.4% outside zone swing rate (5th-highest), 19.0% swinging strike rate (3rd-best) and has an incredible 7.9 pitch value in FanGraphs’ model. For context, the next-best pitch value on cutters is 3.4 and only two other pitchers have one that grades at 3.0 or above. 

Only two of the 85 hitters he’s faced have barreled up a pitch and he’s allowed just 11 hard-hit balls (T-2nd) this season. To add, as seen above, his control has been simply amazing. Only 10 hitters have reached a 3-ball count against him and only one has seen a 3-0 count. 

He struck that guy out, by the way. 

As of now, Burnes is slated to make his next start at home against the Marlins on Monday. Let’s see if he can keep this historic start rolling. 

BetQL’s model has gone 8-2 (80%) on O/U bets in Burnes’ starts since the beginning of last season. If you bet $100 on those, you’d be up $519.44 right now! Grab a Day Pass for $2.99, subscribe to a monthly plan starting at $14.99 or grab a yearly plan starting at $59.99 to get the best bets before his next start!