Dispelling The Ridiculous "Playoff Kershaw" Narrative

• The Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday October 20, 2020. 

• Clayton Kershaw will take the hill for the Dodgers, who opened as -170 favorites. The O/U opened at 8 runs. 

• Our model is giving one team the clear edge to win. CLICK THIS to see our projected win % for both teams.

• The article below will look at xFIP and SIERA advanced metrics to pump the brakes on the narrative that Kershaw is a terrible postseason pitcher. 

• While Kershaw’s career playoff ERA is 4.31, his xFIP is 3.42. To put that into perspective, 11 qualified MLB starters recorded a better xFIP than that during the 2020 regular season. 

• Did you know that Kershaw’s 3.03 career postseason SIERA is actually better than his 3.09 regular season SIERA? To put that mark into perspective, only Shane Bieber, Jacob deGrom, Kenta Maeda and Trevor Bauer had better SIERA statistics during the 2020 season. 

• For more insight, read the full article below.

THE PROOF IS IN THE NUMBERS

There’s no denying that Clayton Kershaw has already cemented his path to Cooperstown. 

That’s what happens when you go 175-76 in 357 games (354 starts) over 2,333 regular season innings with a 2.43 career ERA. 

Those numbers are absurd. 

They might not even be replicable in video games. 

As dominant as he’s been since breaking into the league back in 2008, a new narrative has swept over Kershaw and his legacy. “The dude can’t pitch in the playoffs!” “What a choker!” “He can’t do it when it matters!”

Keep in mind that the same people who are uttered those misconceptions after he allowed four earned runs on seven hits in 5.0 innings against the Braves in a 10-2 loss in the NLCS are the same people ignoring the two previous quality starts he tossed this postseason.

He pitched 8.0 innings and allowed three hits while striking out 13 and walking one in a victory over the Brewers in the first round before tossing a quality start against a very dangerous Padres lineup in his start right after that one and before his loss to the Braves.

Pump the brakes, people.

A FAIR LOOK AT HIS RESUME

Sure, sports fans tend to be prisoners of the moment, but a deep dive into data suggests that while Kershaw hasn’t racked up wins like he has in the regular season, he certainly hasn’t been a slouch or liability in any way.

Rather than using ERA, let’s use FanGraphs’ xFIP (Expected Fielder Independent Fielding) metric. This statistic estimates a player’s expected run prevention independent of the performance of their defense and is based on outcomes that don’t involve defense (strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, fly balls allowed). It uses those statistics and approximates a pitcher’s ERA assuming average outcomes on balls in play and a league average home run per fly ball ratio. 

This is generally a better representation of ERA because it normalizes a pitcher’s home runs allowed based on their fly ball rate rather than simply using the raw number of home runs allowed. 

While Kershaw’s career playoff ERA is 4.31, his xFIP is 3.42. To put that into perspective, 11 qualified MLB starters recorded a better xFIP than that during the 2020 regular season and he’s done that over the course of his career.

There’s no doubt that he’s been bitten by the long ball in the postseason. His 1.37 home runs per 9 innings in the playoffs is almost double his 0.70 mark during the regular season. However, his strikeout rate (26.9% postseason compared to 27.5% regular season) has been nearly identical, as has the rest of his advanced profile. 

Another advanced ERA estimator via FanGraphs is SIERA. This metric doesn’t ignore balls in play like xFIP, but is thought of as more accurate within the baseball stat community because it attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. 

Did you know that Kershaw’s 3.03 career postseason SIERA is actually better than his 3.09 regular season SIERA? 

To put that mark into perspective, only Shane Bieber, Jacob deGrom, Kenta Maeda and Trevor Bauer had better SIERA statistics during the 2020 season. 

WHAT ALL THIS MEANS

Sure, the old school baseball crowd will look at Kershaw’s 11-12 postseason record in 35 games (28 starts) and claim that’s all that matters.

Good for them. 

Run support and defense matter. Bullpen support matters. There’s a lot more that goes into earning a win than simply pitching well. 

Just ask Jacob deGrom about that.

There’s no denying that all eyes will be on Kershaw, who has an opportunity to make a major statement on Tuesday. Current Rays who have faced him have gone 9-for-60 (0.76) with 18 strikeouts and while Tampa Bay has been very solid against left-handed pitching as a whole this season, they’ve struck out at an MLB-worst 28.5% rate against southpaws.

Don’t be narrow-minded and throw in the towel on Kershaw in the postseason. He’s still the same dominant pitcher and should show it in Game 1.