Contrarian Bet Of The MLB Slate (August 19)

⦿ The Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) have an NL-leading .271 average vs. RHP and could ruin Joe Ross’ recent string of lucky outings tonight.

Nationals (67-56) @ Pirates (51-72)   

Ross (3-3, 5.91) vs. Williams (5-5, 5.25)

7:05 pm ET

Pick: Pirates +100

Pittsburgh’s Edge

The Pittsburgh Pirates have gone 3-4 over their last seven contests and have produced a couple of double-digit scoring outputs (37 total runs). Starling Marte, Bryan Reynolds, and Josh Bell have smacked two homers each, including four stolen bags by Marte. Pittsburgh’s offense has enjoyed hitting right-handed pitching this season, posting a .773 OPS (sixth-best in the NL). Their .271 average against righties ranks best in the NL in 2019.

The Pirates offense typically deploys five left-handed bats (three switch-hitters) that are combining for a .369 wOBA and 24.5 percent line drive rate against righties. This offense could really back a struggling Trevor Williams tonight.

Find out tonight’s 4-star MLB run total bet HERE!

Williams has allowed just a 24.6 percent hard hit rate over his last three rough outings. He has also started one game against the Washington Nationals this season, logging 6 1/3 innings and allowing two runs.

Ross Is No Boss

For those of you thinking that Joe Ross has figured himself out, think again. 

The Nationals starter has been fortunate over his last three outings, as his free passes didn’t harm him like they have all season long. He walked nine over his last three contests and managed to strand all but one. That’s tough to do when you’re hardly missing bats and tallying just 11 strikeouts over 18 innings. Ross has had control issues all season, compiling a hefty 11.2 percent walk rate. For those of you that prefer hard numbers, that’s 22 free passes over just 42 2/3 innings.

The Washington starter is allowing a .423 wOBA against southpaws this season, including a walk rate that’s higher than his strikeout rate. He is allowing 39.0 percent of batted balls to exit at a velocity of 95-plus miles per hour, and his line drive rate is a whopping 30.0 percent against lefties. If the Pittsburgh offense can boot Ross from this game quickly, then they’ll get to feast on the worst bullpen in the NL after. The Nationals pen has posted a horrific 6.09 ERA this season.

Note: All advanced and batted ball statistics were found on FanGraphs. The advice above represents the writer's personal view and does not reflect or represent BetQL's stance or interest in any way.